Value bet: Draw @ 3.90 – our chance 32% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMonza to win ✗37% · @2.10
Double chanceMonza or draw ✗69% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.70
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓63% · @1.75
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.30
Monza vs Aris Thessalonikis: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Thursday 30 July: Monza v Aris Thessalonikis in the Friendlies Clubs.
Current form
Monza, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Galatasaray, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Aris Thessalonikis, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Levadiakos, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monza 1.9 xG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.8 xG – a total near 3.7. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 63% and GG at 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monza 37%, draw 32%, Aris Thessalonikis 31%.
Lower-risk option: Monza or draw (69%) at 1.36.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.90 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Monza or draw (69%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monza 1–1 Aris Thessalonikis. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monza37%fair 2.69 · @2.10
Draw32%fair 3.16 · @3.90
Aris Thessalonikis31%fair 3.21 · @2.62
3.68Expected goals
1.91Monza xG
1.77Aris Thessalonikis xG
59%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–19%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
3–15%
1–05%
From our goals model: Monza 1.9 – 1.8 Aris Thessalonikis expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Monza
Aris Thessalonikis
Attack vs Friendlies Clubs average
+12%
+11%
Goals conceded vs average
+12%
+21%
Our expected goals here
1.91
1.80
Our own ratings from every Friendlies Clubs result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monza to win✗
37%
2.69
2.10
Double chance
Monza or draw✗
69%
1.45
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
–
Draw no bet
Monza (draw no bet)✗
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
Aris Thessalonikis +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.60
1.75 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
First team to score
Monza to score first✗
51%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
35%
2.85
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monza / FT Monza✗
26%
3.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.30
–
Recent results
Monza – last 6
WWLWWD
24 Jul
@ Galatasaray
2–0
W
18 Jul
vs PRO Vercelli
4–3
W
29 May
vs Catanzaro
0–2
L
24 May
@ Catanzaro
2–0
W
19 May
vs Juve Stabia
2–1
W
8 May
vs Empoli
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Aris Thessalonikis – last 6
WWWDLD
17 May
vs Levadiakos
3–0
W
13 May
@ Volos NFC
2–1
W
10 May
vs OFI
3–1
W
5 Apr
@ Levadiakos
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Panathinaikos
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Kifisia
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monza and Aris Thessalonikis.
What is the prediction for Monza vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our pick is Monza or draw with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Monza vs Aris Thessalonikis?
On our numbers Monza have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Aris Thessalonikis 31%.
How many goals will there be in Monza vs Aris Thessalonikis?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monza vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our predicted score is Monza 1–1 Aris Thessalonikis, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Monza vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Monza vs Aris Thessalonikis (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Thursday 30 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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