Merthyr Town 31%Draw 34%Hednesford Town 34%Expected goals 1.45 – 1.52
79%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.50 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultHednesford Town to win ✗34% · @2.33
Double chanceHednesford Town or draw ✗69% · @1.45
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.63
Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Merthyr Town welcome Hednesford Town to Penydarren Park for a National League North fixture on Saturday 8 August (15:00 WAT). In the table, Merthyr Town are 17th, lower half, on 19 points after 16 matches; Hednesford Town are 5th (upper half) with 27.
Current form
Merthyr Town, last 5: LWWLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Worcester City, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 5. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Hednesford Town, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Boston United, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Hednesford Town, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for Merthyr Town.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Merthyr Town 1.4 xG, Hednesford Town 1.5 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 64% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Merthyr Town 31%, draw 34%, Hednesford Town 34%.
Lower-risk option: Hednesford Town or draw (69%) at 1.45.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Merthyr Town 1–1 Hednesford Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Merthyr Town31%fair 3.21 · @2.60
Draw34%fair 2.91 · @3.50
Hednesford Town34%fair 2.90 · @2.33
2.97Expected goals
1.45Merthyr Town xG
1.52Hednesford Town xG
64%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Merthyr Town 1.4 – 1.5 Hednesford Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hednesford Town to win✗
34%
2.90
2.33
Double chance
Hednesford Town or draw✗
69%
1.45
1.45
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.50
Draw no bet
Hednesford Town (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Merthyr Town +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Hednesford Town to score first✗
49%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hednesford Town / FT Hednesford Town✗
23%
4.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.63
–
Recent results
Merthyr Town – last 6
LWWLDW
1 Aug
@ Worcester City
0–1
L
28 Jul
vs Swansea
3–0
W
21 Jul
vs Briton Ferry
3–0
W
18 Jul
vs Forest Green
1–2
L
14 Jul
vs Yeovil Town
2–2
D
10 Jul
vs Cambrian & Clydach
4–2
W
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Hednesford Town – last 6
WLWWWW
1 Aug
vs Boston United
2–0
W
18 Jul
vs Solihull Moors
1–2
L
28 Apr
vs Stockton Town
2–0
W
6 Apr
@ United of Manchester
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs Prescot Cables
3–0
W
21 Feb
vs Lancaster City
3–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Merthyr Town and Hednesford Town.
What is the prediction for Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town?
On our numbers Merthyr Town have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 34% and Hednesford Town 34%.
How many goals will there be in Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town?
Our predicted score is Merthyr Town 1–1 Hednesford Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town?
Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town (National League North) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Penydarren Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
