Merthyr Town vs Chorley: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 29 August the National League North brings Merthyr Town against Chorley. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Merthyr Town are 17th, lower half, on 19 points after 16 matches; Chorley are 13th (lower half) with 20. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Merthyr Town, last 5: DDLWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with South Shields, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Chorley, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Scarborough Athletic, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Merthyr Town 1.4 xG, Chorley 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Merthyr Town 40%, draw 21%, Chorley 39%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Merthyr Town 1–1 Chorley. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Merthyr Town40%fair 2.50 · @2.38
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.40
Chorley39%fair 2.57 · @2.45
2.82Expected goals
1.42Merthyr Town xG
1.40Chorley xG
63%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–08%
2–18%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: Merthyr Town 1.4 – 1.4 Chorley expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Merthyr Town to win✗
40%
2.50
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.62
Draw no bet
Merthyr Town (draw no bet)
51%
1.97
–
Asian handicap
Chorley +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.44
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.17
First team to score
Merthyr Town to score first✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Merthyr Town / FT Merthyr Town✗
22%
4.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.87
–
Recent results
Merthyr Town – last 6
DDLWLW
22 Aug
@ South Shields
1–1
D
18 Aug
vs AFC Telford United
2–2
D
15 Aug
@ Spennymoor Town
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Hednesford Town
2–0
W
1 Aug
@ Worcester City
0–1
L
28 Jul
vs Swansea
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Chorley – last 6
WWLLLL
22 Aug
vs Scarborough Athletic
2–1
W
18 Aug
@ Marine
2–0
W
15 Aug
@ South Shields
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Chester
1–2
L
28 Jul
@ Trafford
1–2
L
25 Jul
vs Accrington ST
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Merthyr Town and Chorley.
What is the prediction for Merthyr Town vs Chorley?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Chorley?
On our numbers Merthyr Town have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Chorley 39%.
How many goals will there be in Merthyr Town vs Chorley?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Merthyr Town vs Chorley?
Our predicted score is Merthyr Town 1–1 Chorley, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Merthyr Town vs Chorley?
Merthyr Town vs Chorley (National League North) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
