Value bet: Chester to win @ 1.62 – our chance 66% vs 62% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultChester to win ✗66% · @1.62
Double chanceChester or draw ✗89% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.91
Chester vs Merthyr Town: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Merthyr Town travel to face Chester on Tuesday 8 September in the National League North, with Deva Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Chester are 8th, upper half, on 26 points after 15 matches; Merthyr Town are 17th (lower half) with 19.
Current form
Chester, last 5: DLDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Hebburn Town, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Merthyr Town, last 5: WLDDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Macclesfield, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Chester, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Merthyr Town.
Head to head
When they last met (10 Mar 2026) it ended Merthyr Town 1–2 Chester.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chester 1.9 xG, Merthyr Town 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chester 66%, draw 23%, Merthyr Town 11%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Chester to win @1.62 – the bookmaker implies 62%, our ratings say 66%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (70%, odds 1.42). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chester 1–0 Merthyr Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chester66%fair 1.52 · @1.62
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.65
Merthyr Town11%fair 8.87 · @4.80
2.54Expected goals
1.89Chester xG
0.65Merthyr Town xG
54%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Chester 1.9 – 0.7 Merthyr Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Chester vs Merthyr Town?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Chester vs Merthyr Town?
On our numbers Chester have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Merthyr Town 11%.
How many goals will there be in Chester vs Merthyr Town?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chester vs Merthyr Town?
Our predicted score is Chester 1–0 Merthyr Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Chester vs Merthyr Town?
Chester vs Merthyr Town (National League North) kicks off on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Deva Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
