Oxford City 58%Draw 22%Merthyr Town 20%Expected goals 1.63 – 0.81
80%
Betarazi pick
Oxford City or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultOxford City to win ✓58% · @1.70
Double chanceOxford City or draw ✓80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.66
Oxford City vs Merthyr Town: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:45 WAT, Tuesday 27 October: Oxford City v Merthyr Town in the National League North, played at RAW Charging Stadium. In the table, Oxford City are 3rd, among the top four, on 28 points after 15 matches; Merthyr Town are 17th (lower half) with 19.
Current form
Oxford City, last 5: DWWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Marine, away. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Merthyr Town, last 5: LDDLL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Morecambe, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Oxford City, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.5 for Merthyr Town.
Head to head
When they last met (3 Apr 2026) it ended Merthyr Town 1–1 Oxford City.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Oxford City 1.6 xG, Merthyr Town 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Oxford City 58%, draw 22%, Merthyr Town 20%.
Lower-risk option: Oxford City or draw (80%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.57.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Oxford City or draw (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Oxford City 1–0 Merthyr Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Oxford City58%fair 1.72 · @1.70
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.60
Merthyr Town20%fair 5.10 · @4.20
2.44Expected goals
1.63Oxford City xG
0.81Merthyr Town xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Oxford City 1.6 – 0.8 Merthyr Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Oxford City vs Merthyr Town?
Our pick is Oxford City or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Oxford City vs Merthyr Town?
On our numbers Oxford City have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Merthyr Town 20%.
How many goals will there be in Oxford City vs Merthyr Town?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Oxford City vs Merthyr Town?
Our predicted score is Oxford City 1–0 Merthyr Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Oxford City vs Merthyr Town?
Oxford City vs Merthyr Town (National League North) kicks off on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at RAW Charging Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
