Truro City 63%Draw 21%Chesham United 16%Expected goals 1.74 – 0.71
84%
Betarazi pick
Truro City or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Truro City to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultTruro City to win ✓63% · @1.85
Double chanceTruro City or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.78
Truro City vs Chesham United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Truro City welcome Chesham United to Truro Sports Hub for a National League South fixture on Saturday 5 September (15:00 WAT). In the table, Truro City are 4th, among the top four, on 30 points after 14 matches; Chesham United are 21st (lower half) with 11. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Truro City, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Dorking Wanderers, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Chesham United, last 5: DWWLL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Dover, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Truro City, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Chesham United.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Truro City 1.7 xG, Chesham United 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Truro City 63%, draw 21%, Chesham United 16%.
Lower-risk option: Truro City or draw (84%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Truro City to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Truro City or draw (84%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Truro City 1–0 Chesham United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Truro City63%fair 1.59 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.40
Chesham United16%fair 6.30 · @3.50
2.45Expected goals
1.74Truro City xG
0.71Chesham United xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Truro City 1.7 – 0.7 Chesham United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Truro City to win✓
63%
1.59
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Truro City or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.73
Draw no bet
Truro City (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Truro City -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Truro City to score first
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Truro City ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Truro City / FT Truro City✗
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.78
–
Recent results
Truro City – last 6
LWWWDW
31 Aug
@ Dorking Wanderers
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Dagenham & Redbridge
3–0
W
22 Aug
@ Tonbridge Angels
2–0
W
18 Aug
vs Southampton U21
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Chelmsford City
0–0
D
8 Aug
vs Maidenhead
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Chesham United – last 6
DWWLLL
31 Aug
vs Dover
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ AFC Totton
4–0
W
22 Aug
vs Walton & Hersham
2–0
W
19 Aug
@ Farnborough
0–1
L
15 Aug
@ Braintree
2–3
L
8 Aug
@ Weston-super-Mare
0–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Truro City and Chesham United.
What is the prediction for Truro City vs Chesham United?
Our pick is Truro City or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Truro City vs Chesham United?
On our numbers Truro City have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Chesham United 16%.
How many goals will there be in Truro City vs Chesham United?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Truro City vs Chesham United?
Our predicted score is Truro City 1–0 Chesham United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Truro City vs Chesham United?
Truro City vs Chesham United (National League South) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Truro Sports Hub.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
