Swindon Town 56%Draw 24%Newport County 19%Expected goals 1.93 – 1.07
81%
Betarazi pick
Swindon Town or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Swindon Town to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSwindon Town to win ✗56% · @1.91
Double chanceSwindon Town or draw ✗81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.08
Swindon Town vs Newport County: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Tuesday 22 September: Swindon Town v Newport County in the EFL Trophy, played at County Ground. In the table, Swindon Town are 1st on 6 points after 3 matches; Newport County are 3rd with 3. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Swindon Town, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Salford City, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Newport County, last 5: DDLLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Accrington ST, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Swindon Town, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.5 for Newport County.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Swindon Town 1.9 xG, Newport County 1.1 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 62% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Swindon Town 56%, draw 24%, Newport County 19%.
Lower-risk option: Swindon Town or draw (81%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Swindon Town to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Swindon Town or draw (81%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Swindon Town 1–1 Newport County. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Swindon Town56%fair 1.78 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.25
Newport County19%fair 5.14 · @3.40
3.00Expected goals
1.93Swindon Town xG
1.07Newport County xG
62%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–010%
2–09%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: Swindon Town 1.9 – 1.1 Newport County expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Swindon Town to win✗
56%
1.78
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Swindon Town or draw✗
81%
1.24
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.67
Draw no bet
Swindon Town (draw no bet)✗
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Newport County +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Swindon Town to score first✗
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Swindon Town ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Swindon Town / FT Swindon Town✗
36%
2.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.08
–
Recent results
Swindon Town – last 6
LLLWWL
19 Sep
@ Salford City
0–1
L
15 Sep
vs Crystal Palace U21
1–2
L
12 Sep
@ York
0–4
L
5 Sep
vs Colchester
3–1
W
1 Sep
vs Port Vale
3–1
W
29 Aug
@ Oldham
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Newport County – last 6
DDLLDL
19 Sep
@ Accrington ST
0–0
D
12 Sep
vs Fleetwood Town
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Northampton
0–1
L
1 Sep
@ Salford City
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Tranmere
2–2
D
22 Aug
@ Bristol Rovers
3–5
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Swindon Town and Newport County.
What is the prediction for Swindon Town vs Newport County?
Our pick is Swindon Town or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Swindon Town vs Newport County?
On our numbers Swindon Town have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Newport County 19%.
How many goals will there be in Swindon Town vs Newport County?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Swindon Town vs Newport County?
Our predicted score is Swindon Town 1–1 Newport County, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Swindon Town vs Newport County?
Swindon Town vs Newport County (EFL Trophy) kicks off on Tuesday 22 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at County Ground.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Salford City1
Sheffield Wednesday2
Accrington ST3
Sunderland U213
Wigan3
Blackpool2
Crewe4
Aston Villa U211
York1
Rotherham1
Chesterfield1
Port Vale1
Tranmere1
Shrewsbury0
Burton Albion1
Nottingham Forest U211