Varzim 60%Draw 23%AD Marco 09 17%Expected goals 1.55 – 0.66
79%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Varzim to win @ 1.77 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultVarzim to win ✓60% · @1.77
Double chanceVarzim or draw ✓83% · @1.14
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.88
Varzim vs AD Marco 09: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
AD Marco 09 travel to face Varzim on Sunday 16 August in the Liga 3 – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Varzim are 6th, upper half, on 12 points after 9 matches; AD Marco 09 are 3rd (among the top four) with 14. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Varzim, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Trofense, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.4 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
AD Marco 09, last 5: WDLDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Pacos Ferreira, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Varzim 1.5 xG, AD Marco 09 0.7 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Varzim 60%, draw 23%, AD Marco 09 17%.
Lower-risk option: Varzim or draw (83%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Varzim to win @1.77 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Varzim 1–0 AD Marco 09. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Varzim60%fair 1.67 · @1.77
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.25
AD Marco 0917%fair 5.88 · @4.40
2.21Expected goals
1.55Varzim xG
0.66AD Marco 09 xG
50%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–013%
1–111%
0–011%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Varzim 1.5 – 0.7 AD Marco 09 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Varzim to win✓
60%
1.67
1.77 ▲
Double chance
Varzim or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.14
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
1.70
Draw no bet
Varzim (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
AD Marco 09 +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Varzim to score first✓
62%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Varzim / FT Varzim✓
36%
2.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.88
–
Recent results
Varzim – last 5
WWLLL
9 Aug
@ Trofense
1–0
W
29 Jul
@ Tirsense
1–0
W
15 Jul
@ Tondela
0–1
L
11 Apr
vs Mafra
0–2
L
15 Feb
@ Mafra
0–1
L
0.4Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
AD Marco 09 – last 6
WDLDDW
9 Aug
vs Pacos Ferreira
2–1
W
1 Aug
@ Cinfães
1–1
D
15 Jul
@ União de Leiria
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Fafe
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Sanjoanense
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs São João Ver
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Varzim and AD Marco 09.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Varzim vs AD Marco 09?
On our numbers Varzim have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and AD Marco 09 17%.
How many goals will there be in Varzim vs AD Marco 09?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Varzim vs AD Marco 09?
Our predicted score is Varzim 1–0 AD Marco 09, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Varzim vs AD Marco 09?
Varzim vs AD Marco 09 (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
