Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.36Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.10 – our chance 53% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +64%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✓53% · @3.10
Double chanceSC Covilha or draw ✓80% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗11% · fair 8.77
Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
SC Covilha travel to face Vitória de Sernache on Sunday 16 August in the Liga 3 – the ball rolls at 17:00 WAT. In the table, Vitória de Sernache are 8th, upper half, on 7 points after 9 matches; SC Covilha are 9th (upper half) with 7. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Vitória de Sernache, last 5: LDDDD Their latest outing: 0–5 defeat to Mafra, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
SC Covilha, last 4: WDWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over União Santarém, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours SC Covilha, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.2 for Vitória de Sernache.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vitória de Sernache 1.4 xG, SC Covilha 1.5 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 49% and GG at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vitória de Sernache 20%, draw 53%, SC Covilha 27%.
Lower-risk option: SC Covilha or draw (80%) at 1.36.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was SC Covilha or draw (80%, odds 1.36 – longer than our fair 1.26, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vitória de Sernache 1–1 SC Covilha. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vitória de Sernache20%fair 4.91 · @3.00
Draw53%fair 1.89 · @3.10
SC Covilha27%fair 3.74 · @2.30
2.94Expected goals
1.40Vitória de Sernache xG
1.54SC Covilha xG
60%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Vitória de Sernache 1.4 – 1.5 SC Covilha expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
53%
1.89
3.10 ▲
Double chance
SC Covilha or draw✓
80%
1.26
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
SC Covilha (draw no bet)
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Vitória de Sernache +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
First team to score
SC Covilha to score first✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT SC Covilha / FT SC Covilha✗
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
11%
8.77
–
Recent results
Vitória de Sernache – last 6
LDDDDW
8 Aug
@ Mafra
0–5
L
10 Jun
@ Leça
1–1
D
31 May
vs Louletano
1–1
D
17 May
vs Oliveira Hospital
0–0
D
25 Mar
vs Benfica Castelo Branco
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Peniche
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
SC Covilha – last 4
WDWW
8 Aug
vs União Santarém
2–0
W
1 May
vs Amora
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Caldas
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Amora
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vitória de Sernache and SC Covilha.
What is the prediction for Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha?
Our pick is SC Covilha or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha?
On our numbers Vitória de Sernache have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 53% and SC Covilha 27%.
How many goals will there be in Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha?
Our predicted score is Vitória de Sernache 1–1 SC Covilha, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha?
Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
