Paredes v Leça Prediction & Expected Goals (23 Aug) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultParedes to win ✗60% · @1.83

Double chanceParedes or draw ✗82% · @1.20

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.95

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.29

Paredes vs Leça: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

11:00 WAT, Sunday 23 August: Paredes v Leça in the Liga 3, played at Municipal das Laranjeiras. In the table, Paredes are 1st, leading the league, on 22 points after 9 matches; Leça are 2nd (among the top four) with 14.

Current form

Paredes, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Pacos Ferreira, away. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.

Leça, last 5: LDDLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Guimaraes B, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Momentum favours Paredes, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Leça.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Paredes 1.6 xG, Leça 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 50%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Paredes 60%, draw 22%, Leça 18%.
Lower-risk option: Paredes or draw (82%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Paredes to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 60%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Paredes or draw (82%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Paredes 1–0 Leça. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Paredes60%fair 1.67 · @1.83

Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.00

Leça18%fair 5.44 · @4.20

2.25Expected goals

1.56Paredes xG

0.69Leça xG

50%Both score

39%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–016%

2–013%

1–111%

0–011%

2–19%

0–17%

From our goals model: Paredes 1.6 – 0.7 Leça expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Paredes to win ✗	60%	1.67	1.83 ▲
Double chance	Paredes or draw ✗	82%	1.23	1.20
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	50%	1.99	1.95
Draw no bet	Paredes (draw no bet) ✗	77%	1.31	–
Asian handicap	Leça +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	69%	1.45	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	66%	1.52	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	61%	1.64	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	81%	1.24	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	92%	1.08	–
First team to score	Paredes to score first	62%	1.62	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	45%	2.21	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Paredes / FT Paredes ✗	35%	2.83	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.29	–

Paredes – last 6

WWWWLL

15 Aug	@ Pacos Ferreira	1–0	W
7 Aug	vs Guimaraes B	3–1	W
1 Aug	vs Lusitânia Lourosa	4–2	W
22 Jul	@ AVS	4–2	W
18 Jul	@ Santa Clara	0–2	L
22 Mar	@ Fafe	0–1	L

2.0Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Leça – last 6

LDDLDW

15 Aug	@ Guimaraes B	0–2	L
9 Aug	vs São João Ver	1–1	D
29 Jul	vs Lusitânia Lourosa	0–0	D
15 Jul	@ Santa Clara	0–4	L
10 Jun	vs Vitória de Sernache	1–1	D
31 May	vs Bragança	1–0	W

0.5Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Leça	9	4	2	3	+2	14
3	AD Marco 09	9	4	2	3	+1	14
4	Fafe	9	3	4	2	+4	13
5	Guimaraes B	9	3	3	3	+2	12
6	Varzim	9	4	0	5	0	12
7	Vianense	9	2	5	2	-1	11
8	Pacos Ferreira	9	3	2	4	-4	11
9	São João Ver	9	2	3	4	-3	9
10	Trofense	9	1	2	6	-12	5
1	CF Os Belenenses	9	6	3	0	+12	21
2	Atlético CP	9	6	2	1	+11	20
3	Oliveirense	9	3	4	2	0	13
4	União Santarém	9	4	1	4	-4	13
5	Mafra	9	3	3	3	+4	12
6	Louletano	9	3	2	4	0	11
7	Caldas	9	3	2	4	-3	11
8	Vitória de Sernache	9	2	1	6	-10	7
9	SC Covilha	9	1	4	4	-5	7
10	Lusitano Évora 1911	9	1	4	4	-5	7

Team

Pts

+11

-1

-4

-3

-12

+12

+11

-4

-3

-10

-5

-5

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Paredes vs Leça?

Our pick is Paredes or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Paredes vs Leça?

On our numbers Paredes have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Leça 18%.

How many goals will there be in Paredes vs Leça?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Paredes vs Leça?

Our predicted score is Paredes 1–0 Leça, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Paredes vs Leça?

Paredes vs Leça (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Municipal das Laranjeiras.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Paredes v Leça: numbers & prediction