Value bet: AD Marco 09 to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLeça to win ✓40% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.32
Leça vs AD Marco 09: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 10 October the Liga 3 brings Leça against AD Marco 09 at Estadio do Leca Futebol Clube. Kick-off: 11:00 WAT. In the table, Leça are 2nd, among the top four, on 14 points after 9 matches; AD Marco 09 are 3rd (among the top four) with 14. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Leça, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Mortágua, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
AD Marco 09, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Maia Lidador, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leça 1.2 xG, AD Marco 09 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leça 40%, draw 24%, AD Marco 09 36%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: AD Marco 09 to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 1.91 – longer than our fair 1.86, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leça 1–1 AD Marco 09. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leça40%fair 2.50 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @2.90
AD Marco 0936%fair 2.79 · @3.00
2.40Expected goals
1.24Leça xG
1.16AD Marco 09 xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Leça 1.2 – 1.2 AD Marco 09 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leça to win✓
40%
2.50
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.91
Draw no bet
Leça (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
AD Marco 09 +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Leça to score first✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leça / FT Leça✓
22%
4.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.32
–
Recent results
Leça – last 6
WWLWLD
20 Sep
@ Mortágua
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Trofense
4–1
W
6 Sep
vs Fafe
0–3
L
23 Aug
@ Paredes
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Guimaraes B
0–2
L
9 Aug
vs São João Ver
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
AD Marco 09 – last 6
WWDWWL
20 Sep
vs Maia Lidador
1–0
W
12 Sep
vs Guimaraes B
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ São João Ver
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Régua
1–0
W
23 Aug
vs Vianense
2–0
W
16 Aug
@ Varzim
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leça and AD Marco 09.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Leça vs AD Marco 09?
On our numbers Leça have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and AD Marco 09 36%.
How many goals will there be in Leça vs AD Marco 09?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leça vs AD Marco 09?
Our predicted score is Leça 1–1 AD Marco 09, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Leça vs AD Marco 09?
Leça vs AD Marco 09 (Liga 3) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio do Leca Futebol Clube.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
