Value bet: Varzim to win @ 2.50 – our chance 45% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVarzim to win ✗45% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.20
São João Ver vs Varzim: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
São João Ver welcome Varzim for a Liga 3 fixture on Sunday 11 October (15:00 WAT). In the table, São João Ver are 9th, upper half, on 9 points after 9 matches; Varzim are 6th (upper half) with 12. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
São João Ver, last 5: DDDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Pacos Ferreira, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Varzim, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Vitória de Sernache, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Momentum favours Varzim, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for São João Ver.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give São João Ver 1.0 xG, Varzim 1.2 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – São João Ver 30%, draw 25%, Varzim 45%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Varzim to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 45%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 1.91 – longer than our fair 1.84, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: São João Ver 1–1 Varzim. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
São João Ver30%fair 3.29 · @2.80
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @2.80
Varzim45%fair 2.23 · @2.50
2.20Expected goals
0.96São João Ver xG
1.24Varzim xG
54%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: São João Ver 1.0 – 1.2 Varzim expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Varzim to win✗
45%
2.23
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
1.91
Draw no bet
Varzim (draw no bet)✗
60%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
São João Ver +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Varzim to score first✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Varzim / FT Varzim✗
25%
4.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.20
–
Recent results
São João Ver – last 6
DDDLLD
13 Sep
@ Pacos Ferreira
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs AD Marco 09
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Florgrade
0–0
D
22 Aug
@ Trofense
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Fafe
1–3
L
9 Aug
@ Leça
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Varzim – last 6
LLLWWW
19 Sep
@ Vitória de Sernache
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Vianense
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs Paredes
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Trofense
5–1
W
22 Aug
@ Pacos Ferreira
4–1
W
16 Aug
vs AD Marco 09
2–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between São João Ver and Varzim.
What is the prediction for São João Ver vs Varzim?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win São João Ver vs Varzim?
On our numbers São João Ver have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Varzim 45%.
How many goals will there be in São João Ver vs Varzim?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for São João Ver vs Varzim?
Our predicted score is São João Ver 1–1 Varzim, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is São João Ver vs Varzim?
São João Ver vs Varzim (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
