Value bet: Fafe to win @ 2.65 – our chance 43% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFafe to win ✗43% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.27
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.81
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.45
Varzim vs Fafe: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Varzim welcome Fafe for a Liga 3 fixture on Sunday 8 November (16:00 WAT). In the table, Varzim are 6th, upper half, on 12 points after 9 matches; Fafe are 4th (among the top four) with 13. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Varzim, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Leça, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Fafe, last 5: WDLDW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Pacos Ferreira, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Fafe, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.0 for Varzim.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Varzim 1.2 xG, Fafe 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Varzim 34%, draw 23%, Fafe 43%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.81.
Price worth noting: Fafe to win @2.65 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.32). Most likely score in line with that pick: Varzim 1–1 Fafe. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Varzim34%fair 2.97 · @2.42
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.02
Fafe43%fair 2.32 · @2.65
2.59Expected goals
1.19Varzim xG
1.40Fafe xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Varzim 1.2 – 1.4 Fafe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fafe to win✗
43%
2.32
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.27
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.81
Draw no bet
Fafe (draw no bet)✗
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Varzim +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.63
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.19
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Fafe to score first✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fafe / FT Fafe✗
24%
4.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.45
–
Recent results
Varzim – last 6
LLLLLL
31 Oct
@ Leça
0–2
L
25 Oct
vs Guimaraes B
2–4
L
11 Oct
@ São João Ver
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Vitória de Sernache
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Vianense
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs Paredes
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Fafe – last 6
WDLDWL
30 Oct
vs Pacos Ferreira
3–1
W
25 Oct
@ AD Marco 09
0–0
D
18 Oct
@ Felgueiras 1932
0–1
L
11 Oct
vs Trofense
2–2
D
20 Sep
vs Lajense
4–0
W
13 Sep
@ Paredes
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Varzim and Fafe.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.32.
Who will win Varzim vs Fafe?
On our numbers Varzim have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fafe 43%.
How many goals will there be in Varzim vs Fafe?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Varzim vs Fafe?
Our predicted score is Varzim 1–1 Fafe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Varzim vs Fafe?
Varzim vs Fafe (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
