Qarabag 65%Draw 21%Şamaxı FK 14%Expected goals 2.24 – 0.96
65%
Betarazi pick
Qarabag to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
Picks by market
ResultQarabag to win ✓65% · @1.50
Double chanceQarabag or draw ✓86% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.19
Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 17 August the Premyer Liqa brings Qarabag against Şamaxı FK at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium. Kick-off: 16:30 WAT. In the table, Qarabag are 4th, among the top four, on 19 points after 10 matches; Şamaxı FK are 7th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
Qarabag, last 5: WLDDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Dynamo Kyiv, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Şamaxı FK, last 5: LLWDL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Qabala, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Qarabag, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Şamaxı FK.
Head to head
When they last met (4 Mar 2026) it ended Qarabag 3–1 Keshla FC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Qarabag 2.2 xG, Şamaxı FK 1.0 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 62% and GG at 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Qarabag 65%, draw 21%, Şamaxı FK 14%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.60.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Qarabag to win (65%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Qarabag 2–0 Şamaxı FK. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Qarabag65%fair 1.53 · @1.50
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @4.33
Şamaxı FK14%fair 7.30 · @5.00
3.20Expected goals
2.24Qarabag xG
0.96Şamaxı FK xG
60%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Qarabag 2.2 – 1.0 Şamaxı FK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Qarabag to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK?
On our numbers Qarabag have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Şamaxı FK 14%.
How many goals will there be in Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK?
Our predicted score is Qarabag 2–0 Şamaxı FK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK?
Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
