Value bet: Ascoli to win @ 3.30 – our chance 36% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPadova to win ✓41% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 13.20
Padova vs Ascoli: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 12 September the Serie B brings Padova against Ascoli at Stadio Euganeo. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Padova are 10th, upper half, on 15 points after 11 matches; Ascoli are 3rd (among the top four) with 20.
Current form
Padova, last 5: LDWLD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Cremonese, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Ascoli, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Benevento, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Padova 1.1 xG, Ascoli 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Padova 41%, draw 23%, Ascoli 36%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Ascoli to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (52%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Padova 1–1 Ascoli. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Padova41%fair 2.46 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.10
Ascoli36%fair 2.77 · @3.30
2.17Expected goals
1.13Padova xG
1.04Ascoli xG
52%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Padova 1.1 – 1.0 Ascoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Padova to win✓
41%
2.46
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
1.80
Draw no bet
Padova (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
Ascoli +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Padova to score first✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Padova / FT Padova✗
21%
4.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
13.20
–
Recent results
Padova – last 6
LDWLDW
6 Sep
@ Cremonese
1–3
L
29 Aug
vs Hellas Verona
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ Pisa
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Udinese
0–1
L
7 Aug
@ Monza
3–3
D
1 Aug
@ Cittadella
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Ascoli – last 6
WDWLWL
5 Sep
vs Benevento
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Carrarese
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ Hellas Verona
2–1
W
16 Aug
@ Genoa
1–4
L
8 Aug
vs Potenza
3–1
W
2 Aug
vs Lazio
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Padova and Ascoli.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Padova vs Ascoli?
On our numbers Padova have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ascoli 36%.
How many goals will there be in Padova vs Ascoli?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Padova vs Ascoli?
Our predicted score is Padova 1–1 Ascoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Padova vs Ascoli?
Padova vs Ascoli (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Euganeo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
