Value bet: Sudtirol to win @ 2.90 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultModena to win ✗39% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 14.46
Sudtirol vs Modena: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 12 September the Serie B brings Sudtirol against Modena at Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Sudtirol are 12th, lower half, on 15 points after 11 matches; Modena are 2nd (among the top four) with 23.
Current form
Sudtirol, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Catanzaro, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Modena, last 5: LWWLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Avellino, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sudtirol 1.0 xG, Modena 1.0 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sudtirol 37%, draw 24%, Modena 39%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Sudtirol to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (50%, odds 1.91). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sudtirol 1–1 Modena. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sudtirol37%fair 2.73 · @2.90
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @2.90
Modena39%fair 2.57 · @2.40
2.00Expected goals
0.98Sudtirol xG
1.02Modena xG
50%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
0–014%
1–114%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Sudtirol 1.0 – 1.0 Modena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Modena to win✗
39%
2.57
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.91
Draw no bet
Modena (draw no bet)
52%
1.94
–
Asian handicap
Sudtirol +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Modena to score first✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
14.46
–
Recent results
Sudtirol – last 6
WDWDWD
5 Sep
vs Catanzaro
2–0
W
30 Aug
@ Benevento
1–1
D
22 Aug
vs Virtus Entella
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Catanzaro
2–2
D
7 Aug
vs Virtus Verona
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Modena – last 6
LWWLDW
6 Sep
vs Avellino
0–1
L
28 Aug
@ Cremonese
3–0
W
22 Aug
@ Benevento
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Venezia
2–3
L
8 Aug
vs Vis Pesaro
0–0
D
1 Aug
@ Trento
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sudtirol and Modena.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Sudtirol vs Modena?
On our numbers Sudtirol have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Modena 39%.
How many goals will there be in Sudtirol vs Modena?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our predicted score is Sudtirol 1–1 Modena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Sudtirol vs Modena?
Sudtirol vs Modena (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Marco Druso.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
