Avellino vs Padova: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 24 October the Serie B brings Avellino against Padova at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Avellino are 5th, upper half, on 16 points after 11 matches; Padova are 10th (upper half) with 15. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Avellino, last 5: DWLDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cesena, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Padova, last 5: LLLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Virtus Entella, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Avellino, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.7 for Padova.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Avellino 1.5 xG, Padova 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Avellino 46%, draw 24%, Padova 30%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.76, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Avellino 1–1 Padova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Avellino46%fair 2.18 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.00
Padova30%fair 3.34 · @3.30
2.57Expected goals
1.46Avellino xG
1.11Padova xG
57%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Avellino 1.5 – 1.1 Padova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Avellino to win✗
46%
2.18
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.80
Draw no bet
Avellino (draw no bet)✗
61%
1.65
–
Asian handicap
Padova +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Avellino to score first✗
52%
1.91
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Avellino / FT Avellino✗
27%
3.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.07
–
Recent results
Avellino – last 6
DWLDWW
18 Oct
@ Cesena
1–1
D
9 Oct
vs Sampdoria
4–1
W
19 Sep
@ Ascoli
1–3
L
13 Sep
vs Palermo
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Modena
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Vicenza Virtus
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Padova – last 6
LLLWLD
17 Oct
vs Virtus Entella
1–2
L
11 Oct
vs Carrarese
0–2
L
19 Sep
@ Palermo
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Ascoli
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Cremonese
1–3
L
29 Aug
vs Hellas Verona
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Avellino and Padova.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Avellino vs Padova?
On our numbers Avellino have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Padova 30%.
How many goals will there be in Avellino vs Padova?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Avellino vs Padova?
Our predicted score is Avellino 1–1 Padova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Avellino vs Padova?
Avellino vs Padova (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
