Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.66
Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Neftchi Baku welcome Safa Baku to Palms Sports Arena for a Premyer Liqa fixture on Saturday 5 September (17:30 WAT). In the table, Neftchi Baku are 1st, leading the league, on 24 points after 11 matches; Safa Baku are 11th (in the drop zone) with 5. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Neftchi Baku, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Zira, away. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Safa Baku, last 5: LWLLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Imisli FK, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Neftchi Baku, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Safa Baku.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Neftchi Baku 1.8 xG, Safa Baku 0.5 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 47%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Neftchi Baku 70%, draw 20%, Safa Baku 10%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Neftchi Baku to win (70%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Neftchi Baku 1–0 Safa Baku. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Neftchi Baku70%fair 1.44 · @1.25
Draw20%fair 4.98 · @4.80
Safa Baku10%fair 9.69 · @11.00
2.33Expected goals
1.82Neftchi Baku xG
0.51Safa Baku xG
47%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–016%
0–010%
3–010%
1–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Neftchi Baku 1.8 – 0.5 Safa Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi Baku to win✓
70%
1.44
1.25
Double chance
Neftchi Baku or draw✓
90%
1.12
1.04
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.70
Draw no bet
Neftchi Baku (draw no bet)✓
87%
1.15
–
Asian handicap
Neftchi Baku -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Neftchi Baku to score first✓
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Neftchi Baku ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku✓
44%
2.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.66
–
Recent results
Neftchi Baku – last 6
LWWWLW
30 Aug
@ Zira
0–1
L
23 Aug
vs Araz
5–0
W
16 Aug
@ Sumqayıt
3–1
W
30 Jul
@ Dinamo Minsk
1–0
W
22 Jul
vs Dinamo Minsk
2–4
L
10 Jul
@ Radnicki NIS
3–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Safa Baku – last 6
LWLLDD
29 Aug
vs Imisli FK
0–1
L
22 Aug
@ Qabala
1–0
W
16 Aug
@ Zira
0–2
L
22 May
@ Zaqatala
1–2
L
6 May
@ Difai Ağsu
0–0
D
29 Apr
vs Şimal
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Neftchi Baku and Safa Baku.
What is the prediction for Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku?
Our pick is Neftchi Baku to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku?
On our numbers Neftchi Baku have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Safa Baku 10%.
How many goals will there be in Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku?
Our predicted score is Neftchi Baku 1–0 Safa Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku?
Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Palms Sports Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
