Qarabag 56%Draw 23%Neftchi Baku 21%Expected goals 1.86 – 1.06
79%
Betarazi pick
Qarabag or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultQarabag to win ✗56% · @1.80
Double chanceQarabag or draw ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 17 October the Premyer Liqa brings Qarabag against Neftchi Baku at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT. In the table, Qarabag are 4th, among the top four, on 19 points after 10 matches; Neftchi Baku are 1st (leading the league) with 24.
Current form
Qarabag, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Imisli FK, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Neftchi Baku, last 5: DWWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Sabah FA, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (30 Apr 2026) it ended Neftchi Baku 2–1 Qarabag.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Qarabag 1.9 xG, Neftchi Baku 1.1 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Qarabag 56%, draw 23%, Neftchi Baku 21%.
Lower-risk option: Qarabag or draw (79%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Qarabag or draw (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Qarabag 1–1 Neftchi Baku. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Qarabag56%fair 1.79 · @1.80
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.30
Neftchi Baku21%fair 4.76 · @3.80
2.92Expected goals
1.86Qarabag xG
1.06Neftchi Baku xG
61%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: Qarabag 1.9 – 1.1 Neftchi Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku?
Our pick is Qarabag or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku?
On our numbers Qarabag have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Neftchi Baku 21%.
How many goals will there be in Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku?
Our predicted score is Qarabag 1–1 Neftchi Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku?
Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
