Sumqayıt 65%Draw 21%Safa Baku 14%Expected goals 1.97 – 0.79
65%
Betarazi pick
Sumqayıt to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
Picks by market
ResultSumqayıt to win ✗65% · @1.73
Double chanceSumqayıt or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.30
Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Monday 2 November: Sumqayıt v Safa Baku in the Premyer Liqa, played at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium. In the table, Sumqayıt are 9th, lower half, on 10 points after 10 matches; Safa Baku are 11th (in the drop zone) with 5.
Current form
Sumqayıt, last 5: WLWWD Their latest outing: 11–0 win over Kür-Araz, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 3.5 a game lately.
Safa Baku, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 9–2 win over Ağstafa Gəncləri, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Momentum favours Sumqayıt, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.5 for Safa Baku.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sumqayıt 2.0 xG, Safa Baku 0.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sumqayıt 65%, draw 21%, Safa Baku 14%.
Lower-risk option: Sumqayıt or draw (86%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Sumqayıt to win (65%, odds 1.73 – longer than our fair 1.54, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sumqayıt 1–0 Safa Baku. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sumqayıt65%fair 1.54 · @1.73
Draw21%fair 4.70 · @3.25
Safa Baku14%fair 7.16 · @4.50
2.76Expected goals
1.97Sumqayıt xG
0.79Safa Baku xG
54%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: Sumqayıt 2.0 – 0.8 Safa Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sumqayıt to win✗
65%
1.54
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Sumqayıt or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.80
Draw no bet
Sumqayıt (draw no bet)
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Sumqayıt -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
First team to score
Sumqayıt to score first✗
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Sumqayıt ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sumqayıt / FT Sumqayıt✗
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.30
–
Recent results
Sumqayıt – last 6
WLWWDD
27 Oct
@ Kür-Araz
11–0
W
23 Oct
@ Zira
2–3
L
16 Oct
vs Araz
2–1
W
10 Oct
vs Qabala
4–1
W
20 Sep
@ Kapaz
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Şamaxı FK
1–1
D
3.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Safa Baku – last 6
WLLLLL
28 Oct
vs Ağstafa Gəncləri
9–2
W
24 Oct
vs Kapaz
1–2
L
16 Oct
@ Şamaxı FK
2–3
L
11 Oct
vs Turan
0–1
L
18 Sep
@ Qarabag
0–1
L
14 Sep
vs Sabah FA
0–3
L
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sumqayıt and Safa Baku.
Our pick is Sumqayıt to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku?
On our numbers Sumqayıt have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Safa Baku 14%.
How many goals will there be in Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku?
Our predicted score is Sumqayıt 1–0 Safa Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku?
Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Monday 2 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
