Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
1
Value bet: Celoricense to win @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCeloricense to win ✗60% · @1.80
Double chanceCeloricense or draw ✓83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.42
Celoricense vs Vila Meã: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Sunday 11 October: Celoricense v Vila Meã in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A. In the table, Celoricense are 7th, upper half, on 12 points after 8 matches; Vila Meã are 11th (lower half) with 9. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Celoricense, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 1–6 defeat to Bragança, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Vila Meã, last 5: WLDDW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Vinhais, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Celoricense 1.5 xG, Vila Meã 0.6 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Celoricense 60%, draw 23%, Vila Meã 17%.
Lower-risk option: Celoricense or draw (83%) at 1.17.
Price worth noting: Celoricense to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (63%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Celoricense 1–0 Vila Meã. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Celoricense60%fair 1.66 · @1.80
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.20
Vila Meã17%fair 6.00 · @4.00
2.08Expected goals
1.48Celoricense xG
0.60Vila Meã xG
40%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
0–17%
From our goals model: Celoricense 1.5 – 0.6 Vila Meã expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Celoricense to win✗
60%
1.66
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Celoricense or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
–
Draw no bet
Celoricense (draw no bet)
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Vila Meã +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.60
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
Celoricense to score first✗
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Celoricense / FT Celoricense✗
35%
2.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.42
–
Recent results
Celoricense – last 6
LLWWWD
20 Sep
@ Bragança
1–6
L
13 Sep
@ Chaves II
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Tirsense
2–1
W
30 Aug
vs Pevidem
1–0
W
23 Aug
@ Maria da Fonte
1–0
W
16 Aug
vs Montalegre
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Vila Meã – last 6
WLDDWW
13 Sep
vs Vinhais
4–0
W
6 Sep
@ Rebordosa
0–1
L
30 Aug
@ Maia Lidador
0–0
D
23 Aug
vs Os Limianos
1–1
D
16 Aug
@ Ponte da Barca
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Rebordosa
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celoricense and Vila Meã.
What is the prediction for Celoricense vs Vila Meã?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Celoricense vs Vila Meã?
On our numbers Celoricense have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Vila Meã 17%.
How many goals will there be in Celoricense vs Vila Meã?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Celoricense vs Vila Meã?
Our predicted score is Celoricense 1–0 Vila Meã, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Celoricense vs Vila Meã?
Celoricense vs Vila Meã (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
