Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.36Odds
2
Value bet: Castro Daire to win @ 2.82 – our chance 41% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCastro Daire to win ✓41% · @2.82
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.16
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 14.00
Guarda vs Castro Daire: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Castro Daire travel to face Guarda on Sunday 8 November in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, Guarda are 13th, in the drop zone, on 4 points after 8 matches; Castro Daire are 4th (among the top four) with 13.
Current form
Guarda, last 5: WLLLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Cinfães, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Castro Daire, last 5: DDDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Florgrade, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Castro Daire, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Guarda.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Guarda 1.0 xG, Castro Daire 1.1 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Guarda 36%, draw 23%, Castro Daire 41%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.88.
Price worth noting: Castro Daire to win @2.82 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (63%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Guarda 1–1 Castro Daire. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Guarda36%fair 2.77 · @2.31
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @2.99
Castro Daire41%fair 2.46 · @2.82
2.03Expected goals
0.97Guarda xG
1.06Castro Daire xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–114%
0–013%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Guarda 1.0 – 1.1 Castro Daire expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castro Daire to win✓
41%
2.46
2.82 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.88
Draw no bet
Castro Daire (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
Guarda +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.60
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.16
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
Castro Daire to score first✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
21%
4.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
14.00
–
Recent results
Guarda – last 6
WLLLDL
1 Nov
@ Cinfães
1–0
W
25 Oct
vs Machico
0–1
L
10 Oct
@ Sanjoanense
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Chaves
2–3
L
13 Sep
vs Camacha
2–2
D
6 Sep
@ União Lamas
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Castro Daire – last 6
DDDWLD
1 Nov
vs Florgrade
1–1
D
25 Oct
@ Alpendorada
2–2
D
11 Oct
vs Salgueiros
0–0
D
4 Oct
vs Estrela Calheta
3–0
W
19 Sep
vs Portimonense
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Beira-Mar
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Guarda and Castro Daire.
What is the prediction for Guarda vs Castro Daire?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Guarda vs Castro Daire?
On our numbers Guarda have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Castro Daire 41%.
How many goals will there be in Guarda vs Castro Daire?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guarda vs Castro Daire?
Our predicted score is Guarda 1–1 Castro Daire, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Guarda vs Castro Daire?
Guarda vs Castro Daire (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
