Atlético Malveira 56%Draw 26%Os Marialvas 18%Expected goals 1.56 – 0.77
82%
Betarazi pick
Atlético Malveira or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Atlético Malveira to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAtlético Malveira to win ✗56% · @1.95
Double chanceAtlético Malveira or draw ✗82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.56
Atlético Malveira vs Os Marialvas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Os Marialvas travel to face Atlético Malveira on Sunday 16 August in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C, with Estadio das Seixas the venue – the ball rolls at 17:00 WAT. In the table, Atlético Malveira are 5th, upper half, on 12 points after 8 matches; Os Marialvas are 1st (leading the league) with 19.
Current form
Atlético Malveira, last 5: DDDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Oliveira Hospital, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Os Marialvas, last 5: DDWWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with União Lamas, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atlético Malveira 1.6 xG, Os Marialvas 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 44%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atlético Malveira 56%, draw 26%, Os Marialvas 18%.
Lower-risk option: Atlético Malveira or draw (82%) at 1.22.
Price worth noting: Atlético Malveira to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atlético Malveira or draw (82%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atlético Malveira 1–0 Os Marialvas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atlético Malveira56%fair 1.79 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.20
Os Marialvas18%fair 5.50 · @3.50
2.32Expected goals
1.56Atlético Malveira xG
0.77Os Marialvas xG
44%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–012%
1–112%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Atlético Malveira 1.6 – 0.8 Os Marialvas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atlético Malveira to win✗
56%
1.79
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Atlético Malveira or draw✗
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
–
Draw no bet
Atlético Malveira (draw no bet)✗
75%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Os Marialvas +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.09
–
First team to score
Atlético Malveira to score first✗
60%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atlético Malveira / FT Atlético Malveira✗
34%
2.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.56
–
Recent results
Atlético Malveira – last 6
DDDWLW
31 May
@ Oliveira Hospital
1–1
D
17 May
@ Louletano
1–1
D
22 Mar
@ Lagoa
0–0
D
15 Mar
vs Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
4–1
W
8 Mar
@ Moncarapachense
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Comércio Indústria
4–2
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Os Marialvas – last 6
DDWWDD
22 Jul
@ União Lamas
0–0
D
29 Mar
vs UD da Serra
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Fátima
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Samora Correir
1–0
W
11 Mar
vs Marinhense
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Oliveira Hospital
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlético Malveira and Os Marialvas.
What is the prediction for Atlético Malveira vs Os Marialvas?
Our pick is Atlético Malveira or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Atlético Malveira vs Os Marialvas?
On our numbers Atlético Malveira have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Os Marialvas 18%.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Malveira vs Os Marialvas?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Malveira vs Os Marialvas?
Our predicted score is Atlético Malveira 1–0 Os Marialvas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Atlético Malveira vs Os Marialvas?
Atlético Malveira vs Os Marialvas (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio das Seixas.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
