Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.10 – our chance 53% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +63%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✗53% · @3.10
Double chanceMortágua or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗11% · fair 9.51
Mortágua vs Nazarenos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Sunday 16 August: Mortágua v Nazarenos in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C. In the table, Mortágua are 4th, among the top four, on 15 points after 8 matches; Nazarenos are 11th (lower half) with 8.
Current form
Mortágua, last 5: WLDLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Marinhense, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mortágua 1.3 xG, Nazarenos 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 45%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mortágua 30%, draw 53%, Nazarenos 17%.
Lower-risk option: Mortágua or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Mortágua or draw (83%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.21, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mortágua 1–0 Nazarenos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mortágua30%fair 3.33 · @2.00
Draw53%fair 1.90 · @3.10
Nazarenos17%fair 5.76 · @3.40
2.25Expected goals
1.25Mortágua xG
1.00Nazarenos xG
45%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Mortágua 1.3 – 1.0 Nazarenos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
53%
1.90
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Mortágua or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
–
Draw no bet
Mortágua (draw no bet)✓
63%
1.58
–
Asian handicap
Nazarenos +1 (Asian handicap)✗
75%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Mortágua to score first✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mortágua / FT Mortágua✓
24%
4.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–0✗
11%
9.51
–
Recent results
Mortágua – last 6
WLDLLW
29 Mar
vs Marinhense
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Naval 1893
0–2
L
15 Mar
vs Lajense
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Fátima
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Samora Correir
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Peniche
2–1
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Nazarenos
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mortágua and Nazarenos.
Our pick is Mortágua or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mortágua vs Nazarenos?
On our numbers Mortágua have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 53% and Nazarenos 17%.
How many goals will there be in Mortágua vs Nazarenos?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mortágua vs Nazarenos?
Our predicted score is Mortágua 1–0 Nazarenos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Mortágua vs Nazarenos?
Mortágua vs Nazarenos (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
