AD Nogueirense 26%Draw 55%Sertanense 19%Expected goals 1.13 – 0.98
81%
Betarazi pick
AD Nogueirense or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 2.75 – our chance 55% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +51%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✓55% · @2.75
Double chanceAD Nogueirense or draw ✓81% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · fair 1.72
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗12% · fair 8.30
AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Sunday 16 August: AD Nogueirense v Sertanense in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C. In the table, AD Nogueirense are 10th, lower half, on 9 points after 8 matches; Sertanense are 13th (in the drop zone) with 5.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AD Nogueirense 1.1 xG, Sertanense 1.0 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AD Nogueirense 26%, draw 55%, Sertanense 19%.
Lower-risk option: AD Nogueirense or draw (81%) at 1.28.
Price worth noting: Draw @2.75 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was AD Nogueirense or draw (81%, odds 1.28 – longer than our fair 1.23, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: AD Nogueirense 1–0 Sertanense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AD Nogueirense26%fair 3.79 · @2.30
Draw55%fair 1.82 · @2.75
Sertanense19%fair 5.35 · @3.20
2.12Expected goals
1.13AD Nogueirense xG
0.98Sertanense xG
42%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: AD Nogueirense 1.1 – 1.0 Sertanense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
55%
1.82
2.75 ▲
Double chance
AD Nogueirense or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
–
Draw no bet
AD Nogueirense (draw no bet)
59%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Sertanense +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
AD Nogueirense to score first
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AD Nogueirense / FT AD Nogueirense✗
22%
4.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–0✗
12%
8.30
–
Recent results
AD Nogueirense
No recent results on record.
Sertanense
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AD Nogueirense and Sertanense.
What is the prediction for AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense?
Our pick is AD Nogueirense or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense?
On our numbers AD Nogueirense have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 55% and Sertanense 19%.
How many goals will there be in AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense?
Our predicted score is AD Nogueirense 1–0 Sertanense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense?
AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
