Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
Picks by market
ResultFátima to win ✗66% · @1.60
Double chanceFátima or draw ✗87% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.12
Fátima vs Nazarenos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Nazarenos travel to face Fátima on Sunday 11 October in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Fátima are 7th, upper half, on 11 points after 8 matches; Nazarenos are 11th (lower half) with 8. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Fátima, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Vinhais, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Nazarenos, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Os Marialvas, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Momentum favours Fátima, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.0 for Nazarenos.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fátima 1.9 xG, Nazarenos 0.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 45%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fátima 66%, draw 21%, Nazarenos 13%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Fátima to win (66%, odds 1.60 – longer than our fair 1.51, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fátima 1–0 Nazarenos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fátima66%fair 1.51 · @1.60
Draw21%fair 4.78 · @3.50
Nazarenos13%fair 7.66 · @5.00
2.61Expected goals
1.91Fátima xG
0.70Nazarenos xG
45%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Fátima 1.9 – 0.7 Nazarenos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fátima to win✗
66%
1.51
1.60 ▲
Double chance
Fátima or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
–
Draw no bet
Fátima (draw no bet)✗
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Fátima -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Fátima to score first✗
68%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Fátima ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fátima / FT Fátima✗
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.12
–
Recent results
Fátima – last 6
WLLWWD
20 Sep
vs Vinhais
4–1
W
13 Sep
vs Oliveira Hospital
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Os Marialvas
0–3
L
29 Aug
vs Benfica Castelo Branco
3–1
W
23 Aug
vs Atlético Malveira
5–0
W
16 Aug
@ O Elvas
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Nazarenos – last 5
LLLLL
13 Sep
vs Os Marialvas
0–3
L
6 Sep
@ Atlético Malveira
0–3
L
30 Aug
vs Vitória de Sernache
0–3
L
23 Aug
vs O Elvas
0–1
L
16 Aug
@ Mortágua
1–3
L
0.2Scored / game
2.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fátima and Nazarenos.
Our pick is Fátima to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Fátima vs Nazarenos?
On our numbers Fátima have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Nazarenos 13%.
How many goals will there be in Fátima vs Nazarenos?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fátima vs Nazarenos?
Our predicted score is Fátima 1–0 Nazarenos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Fátima vs Nazarenos?
Fátima vs Nazarenos (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
