Os Marialvas 66%Draw 22%Sertanense 11%Expected goals 1.84 – 0.62
66%
Betarazi pick
Os Marialvas to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Picks by market
ResultOs Marialvas to win ✗66% · @1.62
Double chanceOs Marialvas or draw ✓89% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.38
Os Marialvas vs Sertanense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sertanense travel to face Os Marialvas on Sunday 11 October in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Os Marialvas are 1st, leading the league, on 19 points after 8 matches; Sertanense are 13th (in the drop zone) with 5. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Os Marialvas, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Ovarense, away. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Sertanense, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to O Elvas, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game.
Momentum favours Os Marialvas, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.4 for Sertanense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Os Marialvas 1.8 xG, Sertanense 0.6 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 43%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Os Marialvas 66%, draw 22%, Sertanense 11%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Os Marialvas to win (66%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.51, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Os Marialvas 1–0 Sertanense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Os Marialvas66%fair 1.51 · @1.62
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.40
Sertanense11%fair 8.77 · @5.00
2.46Expected goals
1.84Os Marialvas xG
0.62Sertanense xG
43%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–09%
From our goals model: Os Marialvas 1.8 – 0.6 Sertanense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Os Marialvas to win✗
66%
1.51
1.62 ▲
Double chance
Os Marialvas or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
–
Draw no bet
Os Marialvas (draw no bet)
85%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Os Marialvas -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.12
–
First team to score
Os Marialvas to score first✗
68%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Os Marialvas ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Os Marialvas / FT Os Marialvas✗
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.38
–
Recent results
Os Marialvas – last 6
WWWWLW
20 Sep
@ Ovarense
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Nazarenos
3–0
W
6 Sep
vs Fátima
3–0
W
30 Aug
@ AD Fornos Algodres
4–0
W
23 Aug
vs Oliveira Hospital
1–2
L
16 Aug
@ Atlético Malveira
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sertanense – last 5
LDLLD
27 Sep
@ O Elvas
0–2
L
13 Sep
vs Atlético Malveira
1–1
D
30 Aug
@ Alcains
0–1
L
23 Aug
vs Mortágua
1–3
L
16 Aug
@ AD Nogueirense
1–1
D
0.6Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Os Marialvas and Sertanense.
What is the prediction for Os Marialvas vs Sertanense?
Our pick is Os Marialvas to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Os Marialvas vs Sertanense?
On our numbers Os Marialvas have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sertanense 11%.
How many goals will there be in Os Marialvas vs Sertanense?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Os Marialvas vs Sertanense?
Our predicted score is Os Marialvas 1–0 Sertanense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Os Marialvas vs Sertanense?
Os Marialvas vs Sertanense (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
