Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.98
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.54
Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Sunday 11 October: Mortágua v Benfica Castelo Branco in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C. In the table, Mortágua are 4th, among the top four, on 15 points after 8 matches; Benfica Castelo Branco are 8th (lower half) with 10.
Current form
Mortágua, last 5: LDWDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Leça, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Benfica Castelo Branco, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to AD Nogueirense, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Mortágua, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Benfica Castelo Branco.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mortágua 1.5 xG, Benfica Castelo Branco 1.4 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 50% and GG at 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mortágua 41%, draw 23%, Benfica Castelo Branco 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (50%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mortágua 1–1 Benfica Castelo Branco. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mortágua41%fair 2.46 · @2.30
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.10
Benfica Castelo Branco36%fair 2.75 · @2.80
2.99Expected goals
1.54Mortágua xG
1.45Benfica Castelo Branco xG
51%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Mortágua 1.5 – 1.4 Benfica Castelo Branco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mortágua to win✗
41%
2.46
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
–
Draw no bet
Mortágua (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Benfica Castelo Branco +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Mortágua to score first✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mortágua / FT Mortágua✗
24%
4.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.54
–
Recent results
Mortágua – last 6
LDWDWW
20 Sep
vs Leça
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ UD da Serra
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Fazendense
2–1
W
30 Aug
@ SC Covilha
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ Sertanense
3–1
W
16 Aug
vs Nazarenos
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Benfica Castelo Branco – last 6
LWLLWD
13 Sep
vs AD Nogueirense
2–3
L
6 Sep
@ FC Alverca II
1–0
W
29 Aug
@ Fátima
1–3
L
23 Aug
vs Naval 1893
1–4
L
16 Aug
@ Oliveira Hospital
3–2
W
25 Mar
@ Vitória de Sernache
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mortágua and Benfica Castelo Branco.
What is the prediction for Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
On our numbers Mortágua have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Benfica Castelo Branco 36%.
How many goals will there be in Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
Our predicted score is Mortágua 1–1 Benfica Castelo Branco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
