Atlético Malveira 64%Draw 19%Fazendense 16%Expected goals 2.14 – 0.97
64%
Betarazi pick
Atlético Malveira to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
Picks by market
ResultAtlético Malveira to win ✓64% · @1.40
Double chanceAtlético Malveira or draw ✓84% · @1.08
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · fair 2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗7% · fair 13.72
Atlético Malveira vs Fazendense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atlético Malveira welcome Fazendense to Estadio das Seixas for a Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C fixture on Sunday 11 October (15:00 WAT). In the table, Atlético Malveira are 5th, upper half, on 12 points after 8 matches; Fazendense are 14th (in the drop zone) with 1.
Current form
Atlético Malveira, last 5: DWDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sertanense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Fazendense, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 0–5 defeat to FC Alverca II, away. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atlético Malveira 2.1 xG, Fazendense 1.0 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 50% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atlético Malveira 64%, draw 19%, Fazendense 16%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atlético Malveira to win (64%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atlético Malveira 2–0 Fazendense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atlético Malveira64%fair 1.55 · @1.40
Draw19%fair 5.22 · @4.10
Fazendense16%fair 6.12 · @6.25
3.11Expected goals
2.14Atlético Malveira xG
0.97Fazendense xG
50%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–010%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Atlético Malveira 2.1 – 1.0 Fazendense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atlético Malveira to win✓
64%
1.55
1.40
Double chance
Atlético Malveira or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.08
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
–
Draw no bet
Atlético Malveira (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Atlético Malveira -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
–
First team to score
Atlético Malveira to score first✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Atlético Malveira ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atlético Malveira / FT Atlético Malveira✓
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–0✗
7%
13.72
–
Recent results
Atlético Malveira – last 6
DWDLLD
13 Sep
@ Sertanense
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Nazarenos
3–0
W
29 Aug
vs Mafra
2–2
D
23 Aug
@ Fátima
0–5
L
16 Aug
vs Os Marialvas
0–1
L
31 May
@ Oliveira Hospital
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Fazendense – last 6
LWLLWD
27 Sep
@ FC Alverca II
0–5
L
20 Sep
vs Ginásio Figueirense
6–1
W
13 Sep
vs O Elvas
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Mortágua
1–2
L
30 Aug
vs Mocarriense
1–0
W
23 Aug
vs AD Nogueirense
3–3
D
2.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlético Malveira and Fazendense.
What is the prediction for Atlético Malveira vs Fazendense?
Our pick is Atlético Malveira to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Atlético Malveira vs Fazendense?
On our numbers Atlético Malveira have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Fazendense 16%.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Malveira vs Fazendense?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Malveira vs Fazendense?
Our predicted score is Atlético Malveira 2–0 Fazendense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Atlético Malveira vs Fazendense?
Atlético Malveira vs Fazendense (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio das Seixas.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
