Value bet: Santamarina to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSantamarina to win ✓56% · @1.95
Double chanceSantamarina or draw ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗70% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.74
Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Circulo Deportivo travel to face Santamarina on Sunday 30 August in the Torneo Federal A, with Estadio Municipal Gral. San Martin the venue – the ball rolls at 22:00 WAT. In the table, Santamarina are 36th, in the drop zone, on 13 points after 16 matches; Circulo Deportivo are 37th (in the drop zone) with 13. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Santamarina, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Guillermo Brown, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Circulo Deportivo, last 5: LDDWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Costa Brava, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Circulo Deportivo, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.5 for Santamarina.
Head to head
When they last met (14 Jun 2026) it ended Circulo Deportivo 0–0 Santamarina.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Santamarina 1.3 xG, Circulo Deportivo 0.5 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 70%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Santamarina 56%, draw 27%, Circulo Deportivo 17%.
Lower-risk option: Santamarina or draw (83%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: Santamarina to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (70%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Santamarina 1–0 Circulo Deportivo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Santamarina56%fair 1.79 · @1.95
Draw27%fair 3.69 · @2.90
Circulo Deportivo17%fair 5.90 · @3.90
1.79Expected goals
1.26Santamarina xG
0.53Circulo Deportivo xG
47%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–021%
0–017%
2–013%
1–111%
0–19%
2–17%
From our goals model: Santamarina 1.3 – 0.5 Circulo Deportivo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo?
On our numbers Santamarina have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Circulo Deportivo 17%.
How many goals will there be in Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo?
Our predicted score is Santamarina 1–0 Circulo Deportivo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo?
Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Gral. San Martin.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
