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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

HJK Helsinki v Motherwell: numbers & prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · Europe · Bolt Arena

HJK Helsinki

LWWWW
1–1
FT

Motherwell

WWWLL
HJK Helsinki 52%Draw 21%Motherwell 27% Expected goals 2.13 – 1.19
80%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1

Value bet: HJK Helsinki to win @ 2.38 – our chance 52% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultHJK Helsinki to win ✗52% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.26

HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

17:00 WAT, Thursday 6 August: HJK Helsinki v Motherwell in the UEFA Europa Conference League, played at Bolt Arena.

Current form

HJK Helsinki, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to SJK, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Motherwell, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Hibernian, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.

Momentum favours HJK Helsinki, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.5 for Motherwell.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give HJK Helsinki 2.1 xG, Motherwell 1.2 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 59% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – HJK Helsinki 52%, draw 21%, Motherwell 27%.
  • GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.60.
  • Price worth noting: HJK Helsinki to win @2.38 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 52%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: HJK Helsinki 2–1 Motherwell. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

HJK Helsinki52%fair 1.94 · @2.38
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.45
Motherwell27%fair 3.66 · @2.64
3.33Expected goals
2.13HJK Helsinki xG
1.19Motherwell xG
61%Both score
59%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
2–26%

From our goals model: HJK Helsinki 2.1 – 1.2 Motherwell expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultHJK Helsinki to win ✗52%1.942.38 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79%1.271.22
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓61%1.651.60
Draw no betHJK Helsinki (draw no bet)65%1.53–
Asian handicapMotherwell +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓64%1.57–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80%1.261.25
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗59%1.701.77
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓63%1.591.36
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓76%1.32–
First team to scoreHJK Helsinki to score first62%1.62–
Half-time resultHJK Helsinki ahead at half-time ✗44%2.27–
Half-time / full-timeHT HJK Helsinki / FT HJK Helsinki ✗38%2.66–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.26–

Recent results

HJK Helsinki – last 6

LWWWWL
3 Aug@ SJK0–3L
30 Jul@ Coleraine FC3–0W
26 Julvs Turku PS1–0W
23 Julvs Coleraine FC5–0W
18 Julvs VPS2–1W
11 Jul@ Lahti0–2L
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Motherwell – last 6

WWWLLL
2 Aug@ Hibernian2–1W
30 Jul@ HB Torshavn3–0W
23 Julvs HB Torshavn2–0W
17 Julvs Genk3–4L
5 Jul@ Aarhus0–4L
13 Mayvs Celtic2–3L
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between HJK Helsinki and Motherwell.

HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell head-to-head page →

More UEFA Europa Conference League predictions

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FT Debreceni VSC0 FC Copenhagen3 121%4.60X23%3.65256%1.68 1.1–1.8xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓
FT Dynamo Kyiv1 Qarabag0 137%2.15X37%3.25226%3.10 1.3–1.1xG 1XDynamo Kyiv or draw 74%@1.33 ✓
FT Inter Club d'Escaldes2 Flora Tallinn0 146%1.94X25%3.35229%3.60 1.3–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.30 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell?

On our numbers HJK Helsinki have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Motherwell 27%.

How many goals will there be in HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell?

We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell?

Our predicted score is HJK Helsinki 2–1 Motherwell, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.

When is HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell?

HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 6 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Bolt Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.