Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Novara to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNovara to win ✗59% · @1.91
Double chanceNovara or draw ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.21
Novara vs Athletic Carpi: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Novara welcome Athletic Carpi to Stadio Silvio Piola for a Serie C Girone A fixture on Sunday 20 September (13:30 WAT). In the table, Novara are 14th, lower half, on 13 points after 13 matches; Athletic Carpi are 15th (lower half) with 13. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Novara, last 5: DLWDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Lumezzane, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Athletic Carpi, last 5: DLWDD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Ospitaletto, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Novara 1.8 xG, Athletic Carpi 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Novara 59%, draw 23%, Athletic Carpi 19%.
Lower-risk option: Novara or draw (81%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Novara to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Novara or draw (81%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Novara 1–0 Athletic Carpi. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Novara59%fair 1.70 · @1.91
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.00
Athletic Carpi19%fair 5.34 · @3.60
2.70Expected goals
1.80Novara xG
0.90Athletic Carpi xG
56%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Novara 1.8 – 0.9 Athletic Carpi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novara to win✗
59%
1.70
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Novara or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.85
Draw no bet
Novara (draw no bet)
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Athletic Carpi +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Novara to score first
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Novara ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Novara / FT Novara✗
37%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.21
–
Recent results
Novara – last 6
DLWDDL
17 Sep
@ Lumezzane
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Pergolettese
0–1
L
7 Sep
@ Renate
2–1
W
3 Sep
vs Livorno
0–0
D
31 Aug
vs Folgore Caratese
2–2
D
22 Aug
@ Juventus U23
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Athletic Carpi – last 6
DLWDDL
17 Sep
vs Ospitaletto
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Cittadella
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Albinoleffe
1–0
W
2 Sep
vs PRO Vercelli
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs Juventus U23
3–3
D
21 Aug
@ Union Brescia
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novara and Athletic Carpi.
What is the prediction for Novara vs Athletic Carpi?
Our pick is Novara or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Novara vs Athletic Carpi?
On our numbers Novara have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Athletic Carpi 19%.
How many goals will there be in Novara vs Athletic Carpi?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novara vs Athletic Carpi?
Our predicted score is Novara 1–0 Athletic Carpi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Novara vs Athletic Carpi?
Novara vs Athletic Carpi (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Silvio Piola.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
