Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Livorno to win @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLivorno to win ✓60% · @1.80
Double chanceLivorno or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗23% · fair 4.27
Livorno vs Vado: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Livorno welcome Vado to Stadio Armando Picchi for a Serie C Girone B fixture on Wednesday 16 September (20:00 WAT). In the table, Livorno are 8th, upper half, on 20 points after 13 matches; Vado are 13th (lower half) with 16.
Current form
Livorno, last 5: LWDDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Spezia, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Vado, last 5: LLLDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Campobasso FC, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Livorno, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Vado.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Livorno 1.2 xG, Vado 0.4 xG – a total near 1.6. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 78%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Livorno 60%, draw 22%, Vado 18%.
Lower-risk option: Livorno or draw (82%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Livorno to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Livorno or draw (82%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Livorno 1–0 Vado. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Livorno60%fair 1.66 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.10
Vado18%fair 5.49 · @4.00
1.63Expected goals
1.20Livorno xG
0.43Vado xG
47%Both score
22%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–023%
0–020%
2–014%
1–110%
0–19%
2–16%
From our goals model: Livorno 1.2 – 0.4 Vado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Livorno to win✓
60%
1.66
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Livorno or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.75
Draw no bet
Livorno (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Vado +1 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
97%
1.03
–
First team to score
Livorno to score first
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
54%
1.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Livorno / FT Livorno✗
32%
3.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
23%
4.27
–
Recent results
Livorno – last 6
LWDDWW
12 Sep
@ Spezia
0–2
L
6 Sep
vs Atalanta II
1–0
W
3 Sep
@ Novara
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Pineto
0–0
D
24 Aug
vs Torres
2–1
W
15 Aug
vs Reggiana
3–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Vado – last 6
LLLDWD
12 Sep
vs Campobasso FC
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Reggiana
1–3
L
2 Sep
@ Spezia
0–3
L
28 Aug
@ Pianese
0–0
D
21 Aug
vs Atalanta II
2–0
W
14 Aug
vs Inter U23
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Livorno and Vado.
Our pick is Livorno or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Livorno vs Vado?
On our numbers Livorno have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Vado 18%.
How many goals will there be in Livorno vs Vado?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 22% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Livorno vs Vado?
Our predicted score is Livorno 1–0 Vado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Livorno vs Vado?
Livorno vs Vado (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Armando Picchi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
