Perugia vs Spezia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Wednesday 16 September: Perugia v Spezia in the Serie C Girone B, played at Stadio Renato Curi. In the table, Perugia are 12th, lower half, on 17 points after 13 matches; Spezia are 1st (leading the league) with 35. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Perugia, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Ravenna, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Spezia, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Livorno, at home. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Spezia, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.3 for Perugia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Perugia 1.1 xG, Spezia 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Perugia 35%, draw 24%, Spezia 41%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Perugia 1–1 Spezia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Perugia35%fair 2.90 · @2.70
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @2.90
Spezia41%fair 2.42 · @2.40
2.38Expected goals
1.12Perugia xG
1.26Spezia xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Perugia 1.1 – 1.3 Spezia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spezia to win✓
41%
2.42
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.75
Draw no bet
Spezia (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
Perugia +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Spezia to score first✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spezia / FT Spezia✓
23%
4.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.15
–
Recent results
Perugia – last 6
LWDWLD
13 Sep
@ Ravenna
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Pineto
2–1
W
30 Aug
@ Vis Pesaro
2–2
D
23 Aug
vs Ostia Mare
1–0
W
15 Aug
vs Vis Pesaro
1–2
L
26 Apr
@ Forli
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Spezia – last 6
WWWWDW
12 Sep
vs Livorno
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Sambenedettese
2–1
W
2 Sep
vs Vado
3–0
W
29 Aug
vs Campobasso FC
1–0
W
23 Aug
@ Grosseto
1–1
D
16 Aug
vs Torres
4–1
W
2.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Perugia and Spezia.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Perugia vs Spezia?
On our numbers Perugia have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Spezia 41%.
How many goals will there be in Perugia vs Spezia?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Perugia vs Spezia?
Our predicted score is Perugia 1–1 Spezia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Perugia vs Spezia?
Perugia vs Spezia (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Renato Curi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
