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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Pineto v Gubbio: numbers & prediction

Coppa Italia Serie C · Italy · Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani

Pineto

DLDLD
1–2
FT

Gubbio

WLWLL
Pineto 38%Draw 23%Gubbio 38% Expected goals 1.15 – 1.14
79%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2

Value bet: Gubbio to win @ 2.90 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultPineto to win ✗38% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 13.13

Pineto vs Gubbio: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Gubbio travel to face Pineto on Friday 14 August in the Coppa Italia Serie C, with Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT.

Current form

Pineto, last 5: DLDLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Atletico Ascoli, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Gubbio, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Sporting Trestina, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Momentum favours Gubbio, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.5 for Pineto.

Head to head

When they last met (26 Apr 2026) it ended Gubbio 2–0 Pineto.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Pineto 1.1 xG, Gubbio 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Pineto 38%, draw 23%, Gubbio 38%.
  • GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.00.
  • Price worth noting: Gubbio to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 38%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pineto 1–1 Gubbio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Pineto38%fair 2.60 · @2.30
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.00
Gubbio38%fair 2.62 · @2.90
2.29Expected goals
1.15Pineto xG
1.14Gubbio xG
52%Both score
40%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–010%
2–18%
1–28%

From our goals model: Pineto 1.1 – 1.1 Gubbio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPineto to win ✗38%2.602.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77%1.311.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓52%1.912.00
Draw no betPineto (draw no bet) ✗50%1.99–
Asian handicapGubbio +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓64%1.56–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓66%1.531.44
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗60%1.671.57
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79%1.261.20
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓90%1.111.06
First team to scorePineto to score first ✗45%2.22–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗46%2.15–
Half-time / full-timeHT Pineto / FT Pineto ✗20%4.93–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%13.13–

Recent results

Pineto – last 6

DLDLDL
8 Augvs Atletico Ascoli1–1D
28 Julvs Scafatese1–4L
6 May@ Campobasso FC1–1D
26 Apr@ Gubbio0–2L
29 Marvs Sambenedettese0–0D
8 Mar@ Pianese0–1L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Gubbio – last 6

WLWLLL
29 Julvs Sporting Trestina2–0W
22 Jul@ Fiorentina0–1L
26 Aprvs Pineto2–0W
3 Apr@ Livorno0–3L
29 Marvs Ravenna0–2L
15 Marvs Ascoli1–3L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

26 Apr 2026Gubbio v Pineto2–0
Pineto vs Gubbio head-to-head page →

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FT Vado1 Inter U231 Pens 7–6 122%2.80X53%3.00225%2.35 1.1–1.2xG X2Inter U23 or draw 78%@1.33 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Pineto vs Gubbio?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Pineto vs Gubbio?

On our numbers Pineto have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gubbio 38%.

How many goals will there be in Pineto vs Gubbio?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Pineto vs Gubbio?

Our predicted score is Pineto 1–1 Gubbio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Pineto vs Gubbio?

Pineto vs Gubbio (Coppa Italia Serie C) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.