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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Birmingham v Brentford: numbers & prediction

League Cup · England · St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Birmingham

DDWDW
1–6
FT

Brentford

WWWDD
Birmingham 15%Draw 21%Brentford 64% Expected goals 0.50 – 1.47
85%
Betarazi pick

Brentford or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

10/10Rating
1.25Odds
U2.5

Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.15 – our chance 56% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultBrentford to win ✓64% · @1.87
Double chanceBrentford or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 13.30

Birmingham vs Brentford: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Birmingham welcome Brentford to St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park for a League Cup fixture on Tuesday 25 August (20:00 WAT).

Current form

Birmingham, last 5: DDWDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Bristol City, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Brentford, last 5: WWWDD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Tottenham, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 3.0 a game lately.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Birmingham 0.5 xG, Brentford 1.5 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Birmingham 15%, draw 21%, Brentford 64%.
  • Lower-risk option: Brentford or draw (85%) at 1.25.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.60.
  • Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 56%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Brentford or draw (85%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.17, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Birmingham 0–1 Brentford. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Birmingham15%fair 6.76 · @3.85
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.65
Brentford64%fair 1.57 · @1.87
1.97Expected goals
0.50Birmingham xG
1.47Brentford xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–121%
0–215%
0–014%
1–110%
1–28%
0–37%

From our goals model: Birmingham 0.5 – 1.5 Brentford expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBrentford to win ✓64%1.571.87 ▲
Double chanceBrentford or draw ✓85%1.171.25 ▲
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓54%1.871.60
Draw no betBrentford (draw no bet) ✓81%1.23–
Asian handicapBrentford -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓61%1.63–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓68%1.471.22
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗56%1.782.15 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76%1.321.45 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗88%1.141.18
First team to scoreBrentford to score first64%1.56–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗48%2.07–
Half-time / full-timeHT Brentford / FT Brentford ✓37%2.69–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8%13.30–

Recent results

Birmingham – last 6

DDWDWW
22 Augvs Bristol City2–2D
15 Aug@ Sheffield Utd0–0D
8 Aug@ Swansea1–0W
31 Julvs Barcelona2–2D
25 Jul@ Crewe2–1W
22 Jul@ Burton Albion1–0W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Brentford – last 6

WWWDDL
22 Augvs Tottenham3–0W
15 Augvs Eintracht Frankfurt7–0W
8 Aug@ Rennes4–2W
24 May@ Liverpool1–1D
17 Mayvs Crystal Palace2–2D
27 Apr@ Manchester United1–2L
3.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Birmingham and Brentford.

Birmingham vs Brentford head-to-head page →

More League Cup predictions

League hub
FT Cardiff1 Norwich2 134%2.68X21%3.55245%2.42 1.8–2.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 84%@1.22 ✓
FT Doncaster1 Middlesbrough3 117%5.10X19%4.10264%1.59 0.7–1.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 69%@1.50 ✗
FT Barnsley3 Crewe2 166%1.60X20%4.20214%4.80 2.2–0.9xG 1Barnsley to win 66%@1.60 ✓
FT Blackpool1 Lincoln4 119%3.60X25%3.55256%1.95 1.1–2.0xG X2Lincoln or draw 81%@1.28 ✓
FT Cambridge United0 Millwall1 134%3.20X23%3.35243%2.20 1.3–1.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.30 ✗
FT Ipswich3 Leicester1 164%1.60X22%3.90214%4.50 0.9–0.1xG 1Ipswich to win 64%@1.60 ✓
FT Southampton1 West Ham4 139%2.44X21%3.60240%2.60 1.5–1.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.22 ✓
FT Stevenage0 Reading3 141%2.28X23%3.25236%3.10 1.4–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.40 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Brentford?

Our pick is Brentford or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Birmingham vs Brentford?

On our numbers Birmingham have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Brentford 64%.

How many goals will there be in Birmingham vs Brentford?

We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs Brentford?

Our predicted score is Birmingham 0–1 Brentford, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.

When is Birmingham vs Brentford?

Birmingham vs Brentford (League Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.