Este 41%Draw 23%Conegliano 36%Expected goals 0.99 – 0.89
65%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
2
Value bet: Conegliano to win @ 3.20 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultEste to win ✓41% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗59% · fair 1.71
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗65% · @1.62
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.60
Este vs Conegliano: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Este welcome Conegliano for a Serie D Girone C fixture on Sunday 4 October (14:00 WAT). In the table, Este are 8th, upper half, on 16 points after 11 matches; Conegliano are 9th (upper half) with 15. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Este, last 5: DLLLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Sandona, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Conegliano, last 5: LWWDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to LME, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Conegliano, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Este.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Este 1.0 xG, Conegliano 0.9 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Este 41%, draw 23%, Conegliano 36%.
Price worth noting: Conegliano to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.55, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Este 0–0 Conegliano. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Este41%fair 2.42 · @2.10
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.10
Conegliano36%fair 2.80 · @3.20
1.88Expected goals
0.99Este xG
0.89Conegliano xG
41%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–015%
1–015%
0–114%
1–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Este 1.0 – 0.9 Conegliano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Este to win✓
41%
2.42
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
–
Draw no bet
Este (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Conegliano +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
First team to score
Este to score first✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
52%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.60
–
Recent results
Este – last 6
DLLLWL
27 Sep
@ Sandona
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Cjarlins Muzane
1–2
L
16 Sep
@ Clodiense
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs FC Obermais
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Brian Lignano
2–0
W
17 May
@ Clodiense
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Conegliano – last 6
LWWDLL
27 Sep
vs LME
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs FC Obermais
1–0
W
16 Sep
@ Cjarlins Muzane
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Bassano Virtus
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Campodarsego
0–4
L
3 May
vs Altavilla
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Este and Conegliano.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Este vs Conegliano?
On our numbers Este have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Conegliano 36%.
How many goals will there be in Este vs Conegliano?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Este vs Conegliano?
Our predicted score is Este 0–0 Conegliano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Este vs Conegliano?
Este vs Conegliano (Serie D Girone C) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
