Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Pavia to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPavia to win ✗57% · @1.91
Double chancePavia or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · fair 1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.74
Pavia vs Arconatese: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 27 September the Serie D Girone D brings Pavia against Arconatese. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Pavia are 12th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Arconatese are 17th (in the drop zone) with 6.
Current form
Pavia, last 5: DDDLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Sant'Angelo, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Arconatese, last 4: LLDL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Pro Patria, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Pavia, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.3 for Arconatese.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pavia 1.5 xG, Arconatese 0.7 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 61% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pavia 57%, draw 25%, Arconatese 18%.
Lower-risk option: Pavia or draw (82%) at 1.22.
Price worth noting: Pavia to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Pavia or draw (82%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pavia 1–0 Arconatese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pavia57%fair 1.74 · @1.91
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.10
Arconatese18%fair 5.54 · @3.70
2.13Expected goals
1.46Pavia xG
0.67Arconatese xG
42%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–013%
0–012%
1–112%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Pavia 1.5 – 0.7 Arconatese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pavia to win✗
57%
1.74
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Pavia or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
–
Draw no bet
Pavia (draw no bet)
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Arconatese +1 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Pavia to score first✗
60%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pavia / FT Pavia✗
34%
2.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.74
–
Recent results
Pavia – last 6
DDDLWL
20 Sep
@ Sant'Angelo
0–0
D
16 Sep
vs Solbiatese
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Crema
0–0
D
19 Jul
@ Pisa
1–6
L
10 May
@ Breno
1–0
W
3 May
@ Chievo
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Arconatese – last 4
LLDL
20 Sep
vs Pro Patria
0–3
L
16 Sep
@ Pistoiese
0–5
L
13 Sep
vs Correggese
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ USD Casatese
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pavia and Arconatese.
Our pick is Pavia or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Pavia vs Arconatese?
On our numbers Pavia have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Arconatese 18%.
How many goals will there be in Pavia vs Arconatese?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pavia vs Arconatese?
Our predicted score is Pavia 1–0 Arconatese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Pavia vs Arconatese?
Pavia vs Arconatese (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
