Value bet: Varesina to win @ 3.44 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultUSD Casatese to win ✓46% · @2.01
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · fair 1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.06
USD Casatese vs Varesina: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
USD Casatese welcome Varesina for a Serie D Girone D fixture on Sunday 27 September (14:00 WAT). In the table, USD Casatese are 5th, upper half, on 19 points after 11 matches; Varesina are 14th (lower half) with 11.
Current form
USD Casatese, last 5: WLDWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Correggese, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Varesina, last 5: LLDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Pistoiese, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours USD Casatese, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Varesina.
Head to head
When they last met (22 Mar 2026) it ended USD Casatese 0–1 Varesina.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give USD Casatese 1.5 xG, Varesina 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – USD Casatese 46%, draw 22%, Varesina 32%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Varesina to win @3.44 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.26). Most likely score in line with that pick: USD Casatese 1–1 Varesina. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
USD Casatese46%fair 2.18 · @2.01
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.30
Varesina32%fair 3.15 · @3.44
2.65Expected goals
1.48USD Casatese xG
1.17Varesina xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: USD Casatese 1.5 – 1.2 Varesina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for USD Casatese vs Varesina?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win USD Casatese vs Varesina?
On our numbers USD Casatese have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Varesina 32%.
How many goals will there be in USD Casatese vs Varesina?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USD Casatese vs Varesina?
Our predicted score is USD Casatese 1–1 Varesina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is USD Casatese vs Varesina?
USD Casatese vs Varesina (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
