Value bet: Montevarchi Calcio to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMontevarchi Calcio to win ✓56% · @1.95
Double chanceMontevarchi Calcio or draw ✓79% · fair 1.26
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Montevarchi Calcio welcome Progresso for a Serie D Girone E fixture on Sunday 27 September (14:00 WAT). In the table, Montevarchi Calcio are 9th, upper half, on 16 points after 11 matches; Progresso are 17th (in the drop zone) with 6.
Current form
Montevarchi Calcio, last 5: LDWLD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Robur Siena, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Progresso, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Seravezza, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Montevarchi Calcio 2.0 xG, Progresso 1.1 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Montevarchi Calcio 56%, draw 23%, Progresso 21%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Montevarchi Calcio to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.23). Most likely score in line with that pick: Montevarchi Calcio 1–1 Progresso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Montevarchi Calcio56%fair 1.78 · @1.95
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.30
Progresso21%fair 4.81 · @3.60
3.07Expected goals
1.95Montevarchi Calcio xG
1.11Progresso xG
61%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–09%
2–09%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: Montevarchi Calcio 2.0 – 1.1 Progresso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Montevarchi Calcio to win✓
56%
1.78
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Montevarchi Calcio or draw✓
79%
1.26
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.77 ▲
Draw no bet
Montevarchi Calcio (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Progresso +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.23
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.78
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.12
First team to score
Montevarchi Calcio to score first✓
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Montevarchi Calcio ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Montevarchi Calcio / FT Montevarchi Calcio✓
36%
2.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.11
–
Recent results
Montevarchi Calcio – last 6
LDWLDL
20 Sep
@ Robur Siena
0–3
L
16 Sep
@ Seravezza
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Tau Altopascio
4–1
W
6 Sep
@ Lucchese
1–2
L
19 Aug
vs Figline
0–0
D
3 May
@ Prato
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Progresso – last 6
LLWLWD
20 Sep
vs Seravezza
0–3
L
16 Sep
@ Lucchese
0–5
L
12 Sep
vs Scandicci
2–1
W
6 Sep
@ Tau Altopascio
1–2
L
3 May
vs Sasso Marconi Zola
4–1
W
26 Apr
@ Sant'Angelo
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Montevarchi Calcio and Progresso.
What is the prediction for Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso?
On our numbers Montevarchi Calcio have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Progresso 21%.
How many goals will there be in Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso?
Our predicted score is Montevarchi Calcio 1–1 Progresso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso?
Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
