San Donato Tavarnelle 45%Draw 23%Mezzolara 32%Expected goals 1.26 – 1.00
60%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.60Odds
Picks by market
ResultSan Donato Tavarnelle to win ✗45% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.59
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Mezzolara: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Sunday 4 October: San Donato Tavarnelle v Mezzolara in the Serie D Girone E. In the table, San Donato Tavarnelle are 12th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Mezzolara are 14th (lower half) with 11. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
San Donato Tavarnelle, last 5: LLDWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Flaminia, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Mezzolara, last 5: DDWLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Grassina, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give San Donato Tavarnelle 1.3 xG, Mezzolara 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 44%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – San Donato Tavarnelle 45%, draw 23%, Mezzolara 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (60%, odds 1.60). Most likely score in line with that pick: San Donato Tavarnelle 1–0 Mezzolara. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
San Donato Tavarnelle45%fair 2.22 · @2.10
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.10
Mezzolara32%fair 3.13 · @3.20
2.26Expected goals
1.26San Donato Tavarnelle xG
1.00Mezzolara xG
44%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–010%
0–110%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: San Donato Tavarnelle 1.3 – 1.0 Mezzolara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Donato Tavarnelle to win✗
45%
2.22
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
–
Draw no bet
San Donato Tavarnelle (draw no bet)
59%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Mezzolara +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
San Donato Tavarnelle to score first✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Donato Tavarnelle / FT San Donato Tavarnelle✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.59
–
Recent results
San Donato Tavarnelle – last 6
LLDWWD
27 Sep
@ Flaminia
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Gavorrano
0–2
L
16 Sep
@ Terranuova Traiana
1–1
D
13 Sep
@ Sasso Marconi Zola
3–1
W
6 Sep
vs Seravezza
2–1
W
23 Aug
@ Robur Siena
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mezzolara – last 5
DDWLD
27 Sep
vs Grassina
0–0
D
20 Sep
@ Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
1–1
D
16 Sep
vs Ternana
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Robur Siena
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Rondinella
0–0
D
0.6Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Donato Tavarnelle and Mezzolara.
What is the prediction for San Donato Tavarnelle vs Mezzolara?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win San Donato Tavarnelle vs Mezzolara?
On our numbers San Donato Tavarnelle have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mezzolara 32%.
How many goals will there be in San Donato Tavarnelle vs Mezzolara?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Donato Tavarnelle vs Mezzolara?
Our predicted score is San Donato Tavarnelle 1–0 Mezzolara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is San Donato Tavarnelle vs Mezzolara?
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Mezzolara (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
