Value bet: Ternana to win @ 1.72 – our chance 66% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultTernana to win ✓66% · @1.72
Double chanceTernana or draw ✓88% · fair 1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.17
Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 4 October the Serie D Girone E brings Ternana against Montevarchi Calcio at Stadio Libero Liberati. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Ternana are 3rd, among the top four, on 21 points after 11 matches; Montevarchi Calcio are 9th (upper half) with 16.
Current form
Ternana, last 5: DWLDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Scandicci, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Montevarchi Calcio, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Progresso, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ternana 1.8 xG, Montevarchi Calcio 0.6 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ternana 66%, draw 22%, Montevarchi Calcio 12%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Ternana to win @1.72 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 66%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ternana 1–0 Montevarchi Calcio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ternana66%fair 1.51 · @1.72
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.83
Montevarchi Calcio12%fair 8.57 · @4.80
2.45Expected goals
1.83Ternana xG
0.62Montevarchi Calcio xG
50%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–09%
From our goals model: Ternana 1.8 – 0.6 Montevarchi Calcio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ternana to win✓
66%
1.51
1.72 ▲
Double chance
Ternana or draw✓
88%
1.13
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
2.05
Draw no bet
Ternana (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.18
–
Asian handicap
Ternana -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.74
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
89%
1.12
1.03
First team to score
Ternana to score first
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Ternana ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ternana / FT Ternana✓
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.17
–
Recent results
Ternana – last 6
DWLDLL
27 Sep
@ Scandicci
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Tau Altopascio
3–0
W
16 Sep
@ Mezzolara
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Gavorrano
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Prato
0–1
L
26 Apr
vs Pianese
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Montevarchi Calcio – last 6
WLDWLD
27 Sep
vs Progresso
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Robur Siena
0–3
L
16 Sep
@ Seravezza
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Tau Altopascio
4–1
W
6 Sep
@ Lucchese
1–2
L
19 Aug
vs Figline
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ternana and Montevarchi Calcio.
What is the prediction for Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio?
On our numbers Ternana have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Montevarchi Calcio 12%.
How many goals will there be in Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio?
Our predicted score is Ternana 1–0 Montevarchi Calcio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio?
Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Libero Liberati.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
