Value bet: Melfi to win @ 3.34 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultEbolitana to win ✓43% · @2.16
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · fair 1.31
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.89
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.97
Ebolitana vs Melfi: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 27 September the Serie D Girone H brings Ebolitana against Melfi. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Ebolitana are 15th, lower half, on 10 points after 11 matches; Melfi are 14th (lower half) with 11. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Ebolitana, last 4: LWDL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Manfredonia, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Melfi, last 4: WDLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Francavilla, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ebolitana 1.3 xG, Melfi 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ebolitana 43%, draw 23%, Melfi 33%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.89.
Price worth noting: Melfi to win @3.34 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ebolitana 1–1 Melfi. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ebolitana43%fair 2.31 · @2.16
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.05
Melfi33%fair 3.01 · @3.34
2.30Expected goals
1.25Ebolitana xG
1.05Melfi xG
49%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Ebolitana 1.3 – 1.0 Melfi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ebolitana to win✓
43%
2.31
2.16
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.89
Draw no bet
Ebolitana (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.77
–
Asian handicap
Melfi +1 (Asian handicap)
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.08
First team to score
Ebolitana to score first✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ebolitana / FT Ebolitana✗
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.97
–
Recent results
Ebolitana – last 4
LWDL
20 Sep
@ Manfredonia
0–3
L
16 Sep
vs Bisceglie
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs Nardò
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Nocerina
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Melfi – last 4
WDLL
20 Sep
vs Francavilla
2–1
W
16 Sep
@ Nardò
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Virtus Francavilla
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Real Normanna
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ebolitana and Melfi.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ebolitana vs Melfi?
On our numbers Ebolitana have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Melfi 33%.
How many goals will there be in Ebolitana vs Melfi?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ebolitana vs Melfi?
Our predicted score is Ebolitana 1–1 Melfi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Ebolitana vs Melfi?
Ebolitana vs Melfi (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
