Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 57% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNocerina to win ✓64% · @1.64
Double chanceNocerina or draw ✓85% · fair 1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.09
Nocerina vs USD Palmese: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
USD Palmese travel to face Nocerina on Sunday 27 September in the Serie D Girone H – the ball rolls at 14:00 WAT. In the table, Nocerina are 12th, lower half, on 13 points after 11 matches; USD Palmese are 10th (lower half) with 14. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Nocerina, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Bisceglie, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
USD Palmese, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 3–4 defeat to Real Normanna, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nocerina 2.1 xG, USD Palmese 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 53% and GG at 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nocerina 64%, draw 21%, USD Palmese 15%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.29). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nocerina 2–0 USD Palmese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nocerina64%fair 1.57 · @1.64
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.45
USD Palmese15%fair 6.66 · @5.24
3.04Expected goals
2.10Nocerina xG
0.93USD Palmese xG
57%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Nocerina 2.1 – 0.9 USD Palmese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nocerina to win✓
64%
1.57
1.64
Double chance
Nocerina or draw✓
85%
1.18
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Nocerina (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Nocerina -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.29
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.09
First team to score
Nocerina to score first✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Nocerina ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nocerina / FT Nocerina✓
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.09
–
Recent results
Nocerina – last 6
LWDWLL
20 Sep
@ Bisceglie
1–3
L
16 Sep
vs Ischia
3–2
W
12 Sep
@ Manfredonia
2–2
D
6 Sep
vs Ebolitana
2–1
W
3 May
vs Ischia
0–1
L
26 Apr
@ Monastir
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
USD Palmese – last 6
LWDLLW
20 Sep
vs Real Normanna
3–4
L
16 Sep
@ Francavilla
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Turris
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Virtus Francavilla
1–3
L
26 Apr
@ Scafatese
0–1
L
19 Apr
vs Ischia
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nocerina and USD Palmese.
What is the prediction for Nocerina vs USD Palmese?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Nocerina vs USD Palmese?
On our numbers Nocerina have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and USD Palmese 15%.
How many goals will there be in Nocerina vs USD Palmese?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nocerina vs USD Palmese?
Our predicted score is Nocerina 2–0 USD Palmese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Nocerina vs USD Palmese?
Nocerina vs USD Palmese (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
