Value bet: Nocerina to win @ 1.79 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNocerina to win ✓64% · @1.79
Double chanceNocerina or draw ✓85% · fair 1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.89
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓14% · fair 7.23
Melfi vs Nocerina: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 4 October the Serie D Girone H brings Melfi against Nocerina. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Melfi are 14th, lower half, on 11 points after 11 matches; Nocerina are 12th (lower half) with 13. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Melfi, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Ebolitana, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.4 goals a game.
Nocerina, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over USD Palmese, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Nocerina, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for Melfi.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Melfi 0.7 xG, Nocerina 1.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Melfi 15%, draw 21%, Nocerina 64%.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.89.
Price worth noting: Nocerina to win @1.79 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.29). Most likely score in line with that pick: Melfi 0–1 Nocerina. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Melfi15%fair 6.76 · @4.36
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.85
Nocerina64%fair 1.56 · @1.79
2.59Expected goals
0.74Melfi xG
1.85Nocerina xG
48%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
0–213%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Melfi 0.7 – 1.9 Nocerina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nocerina to win✓
64%
1.56
1.79 ▲
Double chance
Nocerina or draw✓
85%
1.17
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.89
Draw no bet
Nocerina (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Nocerina -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.82
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.29
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.06
First team to score
Nocerina to score first✓
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Nocerina ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nocerina / FT Nocerina✓
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
14%
7.23
–
Recent results
Melfi – last 5
LWDLL
27 Sep
@ Ebolitana
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Francavilla
2–1
W
16 Sep
@ Nardò
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Virtus Francavilla
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Real Normanna
0–2
L
0.4Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Nocerina – last 6
WLWDWL
27 Sep
vs USD Palmese
3–0
W
20 Sep
@ Bisceglie
1–3
L
16 Sep
vs Ischia
3–2
W
12 Sep
@ Manfredonia
2–2
D
6 Sep
vs Ebolitana
2–1
W
3 May
vs Ischia
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Melfi and Nocerina.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Melfi vs Nocerina?
On our numbers Melfi have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Nocerina 64%.
How many goals will there be in Melfi vs Nocerina?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Melfi vs Nocerina?
Our predicted score is Melfi 0–1 Nocerina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Melfi vs Nocerina?
Melfi vs Nocerina (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
