Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Besëlidhja Lezhë to win @ 1.91 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBesëlidhja Lezhë to win ✓62% · @1.91
Double chanceBesëlidhja Lezhë or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗61% · fair 1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.90
Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Besëlidhja Lezhë welcome Kastrioti Krujë for a 1st Division fixture on Saturday 17 October (12:30 WAT). In the table, Besëlidhja Lezhë are 7th, lower half, on 14 points after 10 matches; Kastrioti Krujë are 9th (lower half) with 11. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Besëlidhja Lezhë, last 5: DDWDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Burreli, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Kastrioti Krujë, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Oriku, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Kastrioti Krujë, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Besëlidhja Lezhë.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Besëlidhja Lezhë 1.6 xG, Kastrioti Krujë 0.6 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 39%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Besëlidhja Lezhë 62%, draw 22%, Kastrioti Krujë 16%.
Lower-risk option: Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Price worth noting: Besëlidhja Lezhë to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw (84%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Besëlidhja Lezhë 1–0 Kastrioti Krujë. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Besëlidhja Lezhë62%fair 1.62 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.25
Kastrioti Krujë16%fair 6.29 · @3.50
2.25Expected goals
1.60Besëlidhja Lezhë xG
0.64Kastrioti Krujë xG
39%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–011%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Besëlidhja Lezhë 1.6 – 0.6 Kastrioti Krujë expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Besëlidhja Lezhë to win✓
62%
1.62
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
–
Draw no bet
Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Besëlidhja Lezhë -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Besëlidhja Lezhë to score first
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Besëlidhja Lezhë / FT Besëlidhja Lezhë✗
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.90
–
Recent results
Besëlidhja Lezhë – last 6
DDWDLL
11 Oct
@ Burreli
0–0
D
6 Oct
vs Sopoti Librazhd
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs Besa Kavajë
2–1
W
16 Sep
@ Bylis
0–0
D
12 Sep
vs Korabi Peshkopi
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ FK Kukesi
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Kastrioti Krujë – last 6
WWDWLD
11 Oct
vs Oriku
2–0
W
7 Oct
vs Luzi 2008
3–1
W
20 Sep
@ Sopoti Librazhd
1–1
D
16 Sep
vs Flamurtari
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Pogradeci
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Burreli
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Besëlidhja Lezhë and Kastrioti Krujë.
What is the prediction for Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë?
Our pick is Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë?
On our numbers Besëlidhja Lezhë have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Kastrioti Krujë 16%.
How many goals will there be in Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë?
Our predicted score is Besëlidhja Lezhë 1–0 Kastrioti Krujë, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë?
Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
