USA 36%Draw 22%Mexico 42%Expected goals 1.46 – 1.60
60%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
Picks by market
ResultMexico to win ✗42% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.39
USA vs Mexico: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
03:00 WAT, Sunday 4 October: USA v Mexico in the Friendlies, played at AT&T Stadium.
Current form
USA, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Chile, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 1 lost from 5. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.
Mexico, last 5: DDLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Peru, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give USA 1.5 xG, Mexico 1.6 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 59% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – USA 36%, draw 22%, Mexico 42%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: USA 1–1 Mexico. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
USA36%fair 2.79 · @2.70
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.25
Mexico42%fair 2.36 · @2.30
3.06Expected goals
1.46USA xG
1.60Mexico xG
60%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: USA 1.5 – 1.6 Mexico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mexico to win✗
42%
2.36
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.62
Draw no bet
Mexico (draw no bet)✗
54%
1.85
–
Asian handicap
USA +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
First team to score
Mexico to score first✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.55
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mexico / FT Mexico✗
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.39
–
Recent results
USA – last 6
WWLWLW
30 Sep
vs Chile
4–2
W
26 Sep
vs Peru
4–1
W
7 Jul
vs Belgium
1–4
L
2 Jul
vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
2–0
W
26 Jun
@ Türkiye
2–3
L
19 Jun
vs Australia
2–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Mexico – last 6
DDLWWW
30 Sep
vs Peru
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Colombia
1–1
D
6 Jul
vs England
2–3
L
1 Jul
vs Ecuador
2–0
W
25 Jun
@ Czechia
3–0
W
19 Jun
vs South Korea
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USA and Mexico.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win USA vs Mexico?
On our numbers USA have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Mexico 42%.
How many goals will there be in USA vs Mexico?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Mexico?
Our predicted score is USA 1–1 Mexico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is USA vs Mexico?
USA vs Mexico (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at AT&T Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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South Africa1