Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.55Odds
Picks by market
ResultNewcastle to win ✓68% · @1.55
Double chanceNewcastle or draw ✓87% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.28
Millwall vs Newcastle: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Millwall welcome Newcastle to The Den for a League Cup fixture on Tuesday 8 September (20:00 WAT).
Current form
Millwall, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Bolton, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Newcastle, last 5: DWWDD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Bournemouth, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Millwall, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.5 for Newcastle.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Millwall 0.8 xG, Newcastle 2.2 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 59% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Millwall 13%, draw 20%, Newcastle 68%.
Lower-risk option: Newcastle or draw (87%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Newcastle to win (68%, odds 1.55 – longer than our fair 1.48, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Millwall 0–2 Newcastle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Millwall13%fair 7.96 · @5.00
Draw20%fair 5.04 · @3.90
Newcastle68%fair 1.48 · @1.55
3.00Expected goals
0.83Millwall xG
2.17Newcastle xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–212%
0–111%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Millwall 0.8 – 2.2 Newcastle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newcastle to win✓
68%
1.48
1.55
Double chance
Newcastle or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.75
Draw no bet
Newcastle (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Newcastle -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Newcastle to score first✓
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Newcastle ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newcastle / FT Newcastle✗
45%
2.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.28
–
Recent results
Millwall – last 6
WLLWWW
5 Sep
vs Bolton
4–0
W
2 Sep
vs Wrexham
0–3
L
29 Aug
@ Southampton
1–5
L
25 Aug
@ Cambridge United
1–0
W
22 Aug
vs Norwich
3–0
W
15 Aug
@ Bristol City
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Newcastle – last 6
DWWDDL
5 Sep
vs Bournemouth
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Tottenham
2–0
W
26 Aug
vs West Brom
3–2
W
23 Aug
vs Liverpool
2–2
D
16 Aug
vs Strasbourg
1–1
D
15 Aug
vs Bayer Leverkusen
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Millwall and Newcastle.
Our pick is Newcastle to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Millwall vs Newcastle?
On our numbers Millwall have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Newcastle 68%.
How many goals will there be in Millwall vs Newcastle?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Newcastle?
Our predicted score is Millwall 0–2 Newcastle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Millwall vs Newcastle?
Millwall vs Newcastle (League Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at The Den.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Bournemouth4
Lincoln0
Crystal Palace3
Middlesbrough0
Leyton Orient1
Bradford3
Sunderland1
Hull City0