Cerezo Osaka 67%Draw 21%Kagoshima United 12%Expected goals 2.56 – 1.11
67%
Betarazi pick
Cerezo Osaka to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCerezo Osaka to win ✓67% · @1.55
Double chanceCerezo Osaka or draw ✓88% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.79
Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cerezo Osaka welcome Kagoshima United to Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium for a Emperor Cup fixture on Wednesday 7 October (10:30 WAT).
Current form
Cerezo Osaka, last 5: WDLDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Fujieda MYFC, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Kagoshima United, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Fukushima United, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Kagoshima United, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Cerezo Osaka.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cerezo Osaka 2.6 xG, Kagoshima United 1.1 xG – a total near 3.7. That is an open game on paper: 71% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cerezo Osaka 67%, draw 21%, Kagoshima United 12%.
Lower-risk option: Cerezo Osaka or draw (88%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Cerezo Osaka to win (67%, odds 1.55 – longer than our fair 1.50, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cerezo Osaka 2–1 Kagoshima United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cerezo Osaka67%fair 1.50 · @1.55
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.60
Kagoshima United12%fair 8.05 · @5.00
3.67Expected goals
2.56Cerezo Osaka xG
1.11Kagoshima United xG
61%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
2–08%
3–18%
1–17%
3–07%
1–07%
From our goals model: Cerezo Osaka 2.6 – 1.1 Kagoshima United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cerezo Osaka to win✓
67%
1.50
1.55
Double chance
Cerezo Osaka or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Cerezo Osaka (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Cerezo Osaka -1 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
–
First team to score
Cerezo Osaka to score first✓
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Cerezo Osaka ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cerezo Osaka / FT Cerezo Osaka✓
46%
2.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.79
–
Recent results
Cerezo Osaka – last 6
WDLDWL
29 Sep
@ Fujieda MYFC
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ V-varen Nagasaki
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1–6
L
6 Sep
vs Tokyo Verdy
0–0
D
2 Sep
vs Kashiwa Reysol
2–0
W
29 Aug
@ Vissel Kobe
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Kagoshima United – last 6
WDWWWL
4 Oct
vs Fukushima United
3–2
W
26 Sep
@ Kitakyushu
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Tochigi SC
3–1
W
13 Sep
@ Biwako Shiga
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs FC Ryukyu
2–1
W
2 Sep
vs Consadole Sapporo
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerezo Osaka and Kagoshima United.
What is the prediction for Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United?
Our pick is Cerezo Osaka to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United?
On our numbers Cerezo Osaka have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Kagoshima United 12%.
How many goals will there be in Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United?
Our predicted score is Cerezo Osaka 2–1 Kagoshima United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United?
Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United (Emperor Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time) at Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Urawa3
Omiya Ardija2
Avispa Fukuoka0
Yokohama FC1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima4
Iwaki0
FC Tokyo4
Shonan Bellmare0
Gainare Tottori0
Tokyo Verdy0
Kawasaki Frontale2
Tegevajaro Miyazaki0
Fagiano Okayama1
JEF United Chiba0
Shimizu S-pulse1
V-varen Nagasaki1