Arsenal v Lille Prediction & Expected Goals (13 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultArsenal to win ✓72% · @1.20

Double chanceArsenal or draw ✓90% · @1.04

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.15

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.64

Arsenal vs Lille: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Tuesday 13 October the UEFA Champions League brings Arsenal against Lille at Emirates Stadium. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Arsenal are 3rd, among the top four, on 10 points after 4 matches; Lille are 35th (in the drop zone) with 1.

Current form

Arsenal, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Leeds, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Lille, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Le Havre, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Arsenal, collecting 2.5 points per game to 2.0 for Lille.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Arsenal 2.3 xG, Lille 0.7 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 54%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Arsenal 72%, draw 18%, Lille 10%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 54%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Arsenal to win (72%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arsenal 2–0 Lille. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Arsenal72%fair 1.40 · @1.20

Draw18%fair 5.57 · @6.00

Lille10%fair 9.65 · @13.00

3.00Expected goals

2.26Arsenal xG

0.74Lille xG

54%Both score

58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–013%

1–011%

3–010%

2–19%

1–18%

3–17%

From our goals model: Arsenal 2.3 – 0.7 Lille expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Arsenal to win ✓	72%	1.40	1.20
Double chance	Arsenal or draw ✓	90%	1.12	1.04
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	54%	1.85	2.15 ▲
Draw no bet	Arsenal (draw no bet) ✓	87%	1.14	–
Asian handicap	Arsenal -1 (Asian handicap) ✓	63%	1.58	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	58%	1.73	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	65%	1.55	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	82%	1.23	–
First team to score	Arsenal to score first ✓	72%	1.40	–
Half-time result	Arsenal ahead at half-time ✗	52%	1.92	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Arsenal / FT Arsenal ✗	48%	2.09	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	10.64	–

Arsenal – last 6

WLWWWW

10 Oct	vs Leeds	2–1	W
19 Sep	@ Brighton	0–3	L
15 Sep	@ Ipswich	4–2	W
12 Sep	@ Sunderland	2–0	W
9 Sep	@ Napoli	1–0	W
6 Sep	vs Chelsea	2–1	W

1.8Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Lille – last 6

WWLWLW

10 Oct	vs Le Havre	1–0	W
2 Oct	vs Zulte Waregem	2–1	W
20 Sep	@ Nice	1–2	L
13 Sep	vs Estac Troyes	2–0	W
8 Sep	vs Real Betis	2–3	L
3 Sep	@ Toulouse	1–0	W

1.5Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	+15	12
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Como	4	3	0	1	+13	9
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	+5	9
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+4	9
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	+4	9
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	+4	9
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	+2	9
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	+7	8
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+3	7
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	+2	6
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	+1	6
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	0	6
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	-1	6
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	-5	5
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	+2	4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	0	4
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	-1	4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	-1	4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	-1	4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	-5	4
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	-1	3
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-6	3
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	-6	3
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	-6	3
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	-6	3
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	-7	3
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	-12	3
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	-4	1
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	-6	1
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	-16	0

Team

Pts

+15

+13

-1

-5

-1

-1

-1

-5

-1

-5

-6

-6

-6

-6

-7

-12

-4

-6

-16

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Arsenal vs Lille?

Our pick is Arsenal to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Arsenal vs Lille?

On our numbers Arsenal have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Lille 10%.

How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Lille?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Lille?

Our predicted score is Arsenal 2–0 Lille, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Arsenal vs Lille?

Arsenal vs Lille (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Emirates Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Arsenal v Lille: numbers & prediction